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Post by Peter Pettigrew on May 24, 2022 22:19:47 GMT 10
Guess what!? YOU just made it to the Finale episode of The ORG of the Phoenix! ![:fan](https://i.imgur.com/074wyXd.gif) Immunity Pairs are done. Hidden Immunity Items are done. Pureblood vs Order is... not quite done. But all that matters now is the relationships between the four of you who remain. We'll have three more Magical Councils, culminating in a Final Two facing the Wizengamot, and then the crowning of one Sole Sur Prime Minister for Magic. Who very well could be you ![;D](http://i.imgur.com/FVUId1j.png) 1. That was quite the tense round we just had. How did the strategising play out at Final Five, and why was Diggle the majority target? 2. Did you want to see Diggle leave there? What difference does his exit make to the dynamics for the last few rounds? Does Crouch playing an Item on you change anything? 3. How do you see the Final Four vote playing out tomorrow? Who would you like to see leave next? 4. How do you like your chances of reaching the Final Two? What are you doing to increase the likelihood that you make it there? 5. Should you reach the Final Magical Council, how likely do you think you are to win the Wizengamot vote? Which of the other players would you prefer to have beside you in the Final Two? Finally, in the event of a tied vote tomorrow we'll be playing a Tiebreaker Duel, which needs to be run live. Will you be able to make it online for this Magical Council?
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Post by Corban Yaxley on May 25, 2022 4:29:32 GMT 10
Cheers. Absolutely feel like I don't deserve it at all but it's still cool to have made it this far. Thought I'd be having more conversations but I guess when it's just three people there's not a lot to talk about. Probably should do the challenge, but I'm still a bit of a wreck so I thought it'd be more fun to get my gut emotional reactions down before I cool off too much. Am I a fool? Obviously the four of us sticking together was a pipe dream, in the end. Did Lily really want to kill me? Did Barty really save me, or did he engineer the whole thing? I liked the idea of the four of us actually coming together and ignoring the selfish 'correct' play, prioritizing our bonds and friendships before desperately doing whatever we could to win. I've always been enamored by the idea of folks, in the middle of a competitive game, banding together to reject the game itself, choosing to keep each other happy and safe over some arbitrary measure of victory. I think there's a time and place for it; it feels awful to play a competitive game where you get eliminated and the rest of the players shrug and say 'we all share a win' because at that point it feels like they just wanted to kill you? (Happened in high school Risk decently frequently) But still, it's such a nice idea. ![](https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/borders.png) Truly, this is not the worst capture-the-flag server ever. So honestly, I think Barty played us here. He used Moody's absence to force a play in the past he wanted that the rest of us either didn't want or didn't think would work, too. I think he knew both Lily and I were too busy to actually discuss it, that we'd both be too shaken to argue him if he was enigmatic and mysterious. If Lily/RAB actually wanted to kill me and they had looped Barty in then why change the plan? If Barty wanted to stay loyal to me without pissing Lily off, he could have silently gifted me the idol and had me play it, trusting me to use it to kill RAB? Like, it would have been *so* easy for him to just send a missive saying "Oh, hey, I have immunity so I don't need this, here you go". He and Lily were both immune so there's no risk to it, worst case scenario I decide to be tricky and kill Digg instead, which is better for him anyways? So I don't buy the 'keeping everyone happy' bit. He wanted to kill Diggle because he thought that logically Diggle would want to kill him at F4 and he felt he needed to get ahead of it. I think he figured out that I was nervous about winning too many challenges being used as an excuse to kill me, so he knew if he fed me that I'd So the emotional part of me is a bit angry, because I think it's obvious the rest of us were sincere on sticking together. The game running part of me is furious that he's pulling shit where he takes advantage of folks who have more time-sensitive stuff they have to work around. I mean, I know there's no logistical equalizer to prevent that from happening, but I think it's still a bit rude or pathetic to so openly take advantage of it. Certainly now if I find myself having to cast a vote between Lily and Barty, this kind of shit cost him my vote. But in a way, it's also freeing? Because now I don't really feel I owe loyalty to him. I can say whatever I want, because in my mind, my conscious is clean. After playing for friendship and kindness for three or four rounds, I've just had that fractured and now even if the rest of the game disagrees, I can still play for keeps without beating myself up about it too much. I did not want to see Diggle leave and I'm furious I had any hand in enabling it, because with a bit of time and hindsight I think if I told Barty no flatly when I woke up, I probably live through this? Him leaving like this puts me in an incredibly awful position, too. Logically I should have voted him so that there's no worry he'd be a Jury lock for me but I just couldn't do it. And I wasn't sure Lily was going to do it, either? So I couldn't risk my vote having actually killed Moro. Not again. Crouch playing an item is such a load of shit IMO. He just wanted to use it to keep me loyal to him while he made a big play on my other closest ally. Right now I have no idea. It's really hard to know how anyone feels about the Jury, or how they feel about us? I've never made it this far and it seems like almost all of the games I spectate, the player's view of the jury is extremely incorrect compared to the reality? So it honestly feels incredibly stupid to seriously speculate about. I think the correct choice then is not to seriously take a tally of who I can win over but instead who can I persuade the surviving players wouldn't vote for me convincingly? At F4 I feel like the past is done, that from here on out we play to keep folks we think we can beat. The only exception is Lily-Barty, who I think unless forced apart will keep each other until the end. So I kind of need to either kill one of them here or convince them that they should keep me out of a sense of loyalty, that I'm still loyal to them and then win F3 challenge. Except I'm not all that good at challenges? And not only that but I have a sneaking suspicion the last challenge is going to be something wildly out of my hands. I wonder, Peter, if the last immunity will be voted upon by any interested Cancelled or Portrait folks? And the Owl Post in the merge era giving immunity was a smokescreen for that. If that's the case, I have no idea how that goes. So okay, let me think. I'll assume equal challenge odds? I don't think any of us are particularly likely to be weaker or stronger than each other, though I think unless I get at least one more "Mathy", "Wordy" or "puzzly" challenge I'm kinda fucked. If Black dies here, how fucked am I? 1/3 chance I win the final challenge, then I probably get booted. If Lily dies here, how fucked am I? 1/3 chance I win the challenge. Probably very good odds I can persuade Black to take me over Barty? But also decent odds I can get the emotional link with Barty to keep me over Black, maybe? But then again, he just said if he was voting with his heart he keeps Lily over me, so I have to assume if this is what happens he's playing with his brain and keeps Black. So 1/3 chance the Black wins, and maybe 4/5 chance he keeps me? So 4/15 chance + 1/3 chance is 9/15. Yikes. But also maybe that 1/3 isn't as bad; Lily seems like one of the stronger challenge folks. If Barty dies here, how fucked am I? 1/3 chance I win the challenge, but I don't think Lily keeps me. I think I can persuade Black maybe? This feels about equivalent of the Lily case. So the conclusion is to get to the end, one of Lily and Barty has to die this round. I'll force Rocks if I have to (and have the option). Ideally if I win, I can just ask Black who he'd rather see? If one of Lily or Barty win, I pretty much have to convince Black to stick with me and vote for the other one? I don't think any of the four remaining players are so separated that a split-vote plan could work. Like, I have to assume Lily-Barty stay together forever in the end. If Black wins, I think it's easy for me to point out that they will 100% take each other to the end, so we need one of them to die. Proooobably I die? But if I get immunity or can pull a magic trick here to convince some of these folks against their better judgment, I need to hit one of Barty and Lily. Mild preference to hitting Lily, but extremely mild; if either of them is willing to hit the other with Black n' I, I'll jump on it. Bad, and I think the odds of me making it are very slim. I honestly don't see a path here. Lily has clearly decided I am the biggest jury threat and I see no way to persuade her. Black might go for it if I point out sticking with the two of them means they're the most likely set of players to cut him at three if he doesn't win F3 challenge? As for Barty, I honestly don't know what to do there. His consistent last-minute shenanigans and panic have been annoying but he's still a friend? But he's a friend that just inexplicably decided to kill our other closest friend despite having sworn not to. I can respect Lily's self-interest and clean attempt at blindsiding? But Barty waiting until the last minute to say "oh you're in danger, you must vote Diggle or you die" is such bullshit that it pisses me off. Like, I should really suck up to him here and I don't have it in me. I guess in a way, it's partially because I'm farther than I've ever been so it's easier for me to accept I had a really good run? So I feel very free to say whatever the hell I want now. I think my odds are solid. I think Moody/Diggle/HK vote for me no matter what. If I have Barty with me, I think I've got good odds on persuading Fleur or Tonks, but it's jury-questionable? But also I don't know how the rest of the game votes there outside of Moody/Diggle/HK so if 1/3 of the question marks break in my favour I have the win. If I have Lily, I think I keep that trio but also pick up Lucius and maaaaybe Black? If I pick up Lucius it's 4/9, I'd just need to persuade one other player. If it's Black, I think all of the pairs group (maybe minus whoever goes at F3) votes for me on top of Moody + HK and it's a clean win. --- RE: Attending next council That would be the same time as normal, right? 8:30 board time? I should be able to do that, but I may run five to ten minutes late. If I'm not online at 8:20 just drag out the council a bit ![:P](http://images.proboards.com/new/tongue.png)
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Post by Peter Pettigrew on May 25, 2022 5:11:59 GMT 10
Thanks for the update! Re: timing, if one of the players involved in the tie isn't online we'd delay the Challenge until they are available. Hence asking everyone about their availability in advance ![:)](http://images.proboards.com/new/smiley.png)
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Post by Corban Yaxley on May 25, 2022 10:07:32 GMT 10
I think it's dawning on me as I'm trying to type out something coherent to Barty that if I want to win, I absolutely need to kill him? I think if RAB dies here, then Barty's (in theory) guaranteed F2 as he assumed both Lily and I take him. But if that happens, he has such an excellent argument for why he's the final winner? Being able to say "yeah, I worked hard to make really good friends and then kept them so close that they never punished me or cut me off as I steadily booted their other friends until all of them were relying on me" is far too strong. Being able to say he strong-armed the Fleur and Diggle votes as well is too much; if I'm in F2 with him I just lose. So either Lily agrees to hit Barty at F3 and I gamble on him not winning the final challenge, or I round up Black and/or Lily to take a shot at him here? If I can hit Lily here instead it's a little dicier but also then I can take Black anyways, who I have at least some chance of beating in FTC. I think the key is I cannot agree to doing a Lily/Barty/Yaxley F3 without Lily 100% agreeing neither of us can take Barty at F2. Frankly speaking, I think it makes more sense for her to want to go for him this round in that case but I don't know how much she'll be swayed in terms of wanting to win vs. being Barty's friend.
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Post by Dolores Umbridge on May 25, 2022 11:44:07 GMT 10
I am sorry Yaxley, but the time has come for me to pu- to puni- to punish… No, to REWARD you. ![:<3](http://i.imgur.com/L3NpwEv.gif) ![](https://m.media-amazon.com/images/I/519p6EIZ-SL._SX425_.jpg) On behalf of the Ministry of Magic, congratulations on making it to Final 4. However this shakes out, you’ve been phenomenal. Good luck.
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Post by Corban Yaxley on May 25, 2022 12:18:22 GMT 10
This is the biggest plot twist of the season, and also if this was TV this would be the biggest death flag I can imagine.
Thanks though, glad my mad ramblings have been a decent read!
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Post by Corban Yaxley on May 25, 2022 13:30:54 GMT 10
Welp, no one's been online all day and I have to go to bed so I'm probably just screwed here no matter what. I've gotten nowhere trying to convince Barty to go for Lily (which, to be fair, is so mind-bogglingly stupid as an idea I only started trying for it when it became clear no one else was going to show up), Black's been online for ages and still hasn't bothered naming a target, and Lily'y not online at all. I think this is the end unless I pull out a challenge win? I think I did okay? I've got a solid vocabulary. But I find it really hard to predict how these challenges will go.
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Post by Corban Yaxley on May 25, 2022 20:34:13 GMT 10
Jesus Christ, how did Black do 6K in 1 hour? I don't think the site would have loaded fast enough for me to do that.
Oh damn it, he probably had two or three windows open to avoid ever having to wait for it to load.
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Post by Peter Pettigrew on May 26, 2022 1:32:07 GMT 10
You've made it through a TWO grueling Challenges, and now just one more step lies between you and the Final Magical Council! The questions today are all obvious, but they do still need to be asked... 1. Why did you choose to vote for Crouch last round and force a tie? How does winning the Tiebreaker Duel impact your final rounds? 2. If Regulus wins Final Immunity, who do you think he will take with him to the finals, and how can you increase the chances that it will be you? 3. If Lily wins Final Immunity, who do you think she will take with her to the finals, and how can you increase the chances that it will be you? 4. If you win Final Immunity, who will you take with you to the finals? What factors would you need to consider in making that key decision? Also please note that the deadlines for this round are delayed due to the Survivor 42 finale - Challenge results at 9:30pm, Magical Council begins at 10:30pm.
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Post by Corban Yaxley on May 26, 2022 4:06:38 GMT 10
Oof. Well, I've done some work and eaten some food so I guess I should quickly go through these questions!
But before I do:
Okay so obviously it's only been a handful of hours since that tiebreaker challenge. In that thread, I said I might put a rant here? But even with only a handful of hours as distance, I'm cooled off enough to not want to rant anymore. Instead, having cooled off, I'm going to give my point of view on it as neutrally as I can, avoiding any reference to the broader game, because as far as I know there will not be another tie-breaker challenge and I can therefor talk about that aspect of the game as if it's in the past. I will note that I suspect that with you having now run that tiebreaker, most of what I'm about to say is pointless and obvious, but it's going to bounce around my skull until I get it out it, so...
I run a lot of tabletop RPG games. I have for decades. I started when I was 14-ish, and I'm turning 30 in a month or so. When I get an idea for a game, or an encounter, or a story, or a mechanic, it generally bounces around in my head until something else pushes it out or I just get it out there into the world. So while I've not (yet) run my own ORG, I've given some thought about what would make a good ORG. I wrote a several paragraph novel about my thoughts on it in Episode 7, which is probably useful reading to understand the context in which I'm approaching this?
When running or building any game, in my opinion it's really important to ask yourself what experience you want the players to have. ORGs are interesting in that they provide mechanisms for very unique and unusual experiences. In particular, the stories and excitement they generate is both incredibly high and unusually genuine because all the time people put into these games leaves them with an incredible sense of stakes, and the simple rules and mechanisms mean almost anyone can play if they have the time. The mechanisms all massively reward complex social connections as well, which makes for an incredible array of relationships. If I take that as the focus, then it's important to understand what makes a well designed TC. In my mind, TC is the moment where every single player, simultaneously, learns about the outcome of all of their discussions, scheming, and alliances. This is the moment where relationships are tested. It's naturally surprising and suspenseful, and anything you can do to make it more so should be done. So every vote parchment, for or against what you understood, is an increase in tension. Everyone understands this intuitively, so much so I think anyone reading this is nodding their head and saying 'yes, obviously, we all play ORGs and/or watch reality TV, what is your point'. But my point is that it means you have to handle ties really carefully, because a build up of tension to a tie means it can't be immediately resolved to a new emotional state. One of the things I'd be sorely tempted to do if I ran my own game would be to implement a system to fundamentally change how ties happen, but I think a rock draw or a challenge are both solid, functional ideas. Not so good they couldn't be iterated on, but functional. The important thing is, players (who already spend an insane amount of hours on these games) probably will rearrange their schedules for a TC they expect to be exciting, and they're assuming a certain length before it's resolved. (Me. I did this.) Not only that but given ties are edge cases, the players are likely not going to want it to be a complicated set of rules, or they will just tune it out. So I think it's very important both for the schedules of the players AND keeping the tension of not knowing who lives and who dies, that a tie-breaker not last very long. Because I don't think you want the player's experience to be a bunch of extra stress about messing up the rest of their schedule, nor do you want to risk an otherwise engaged player shrugging and giving up because of outside circumstance.
As I opened with, I'm assuming this is all already obvious but my brain will not let it go until I've written it up. On a positive note, the actual challenge itself is a really fun idea, and if there was a workable way to have it be a main challenge without needing it to be live, I'd be sorely tempted to do so. I imagine it could be done? There must be some way to make a backup of a board, and there must be some way to then copy that backup and change some permissions on it. It might be a decent bit of effort but given the absurd amount of effort you've put into this, I honestly don't believe it'd be the thing to break the camel's back, so to speak.
Okay, now that I've talked about that, I should think about the actual game. (This is one of the reasons I struggled more in parts of FEH; the format changed every three or four rounds and as a result every three of four posts I completely ignored the social aspect of the game in my confessional, instead doing a deep dive on the new mechanics put in front of me. I didn't realize how much clearer I'd see things if I focused more on the humans playing, but it's unlikely I'll be able to change how my brain is wired and will just remain a weakness of mine.)
It was that or death. If you're specifically asking about Barty vs. Lily, I felt going to the end with Barty was a loss, and going to the end with Lily is a tossup. I can't wait to read the Wizengamot forum and see how incredibly wrong all of my thinking is. The Wizengamot board looks cool, by the way. I stumbled on it while looking through URLs to see if there was a board I couldn't find this morning. Obviously couldn't see the rest of the board, but the black/white background was solid, gives it a nice feel of finality. St. Mungos was cute, too.
I think he takes me, because all of the folks most likely to vote for him are also friends with Lily. I think I'll be able to convincingly argue to him that he has far more locked in votes fighting someone who doesn't get his order allies' votes by default.
RAB, and probably nothing I can do about that.
TBD. I'll sort that out in my next post, but this is already kind of long.
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Post by Corban Yaxley on May 26, 2022 4:39:38 GMT 10
Okay, so. If I win Final Immunity, who will I take? There are two main axis for me to consider. Firstly; the emotional feelings of taking one of them vs. the other. And secondly, the logistics of how good or bad my chances are.
I'm not good at emotions (I had a hard time deciding where to put my vote in FEH, and wound up making a mathematical system to try and determine it) so I'll tackle what I perceive as my strength first, the logistics.
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So right now, if it's RAB vs. Yaxley; what is the likely breakdown?
RAB: Tonks, Fleur Yaxley: Barty, Digg, Lily Undecided: Moody, HK, Lucius, Wood.
Out of the undecideds, my logic is that I think Moody might vote for me, but also he might sympathize with the underdog. HK liked both of us quite a bit, but it's been weeks since I talked to him, I have no idea what he's thought of my game between now and then. I could see him finding me just getting into a large alliance, riding it to a conclusion, and then nearly getting trampled underfoot by it distasteful. Lucius, I think? Still wants me to win? I do not know why, but looking at his emoticons in the MC being shocked and sad Barty n' I were at cross-purposes makes me think he might not care about me needing to throw him under the bus so thoroughly. Wood stressed several times he thought I was in a really good position, but he's also close with Fleur who was in love with Black; I feel like perhaps Wood and Black might also have been sympathetic to each other?
The strengths of this; RAB and I were both targeted over and over again, so no one can claim I was socially worse than he was. Many of the sets of pairs will know Black only survived off my immunity wins for several rounds. This feels very winnable to me.
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What if it's Yaxley vs. Lily?
Lily: Tonks, Fleur Yaxley: HK, Lucius Undecideds: Moody, Barty, RAB, Wood, Diggle
Yikes, on first glance this is dicier. Realistically I think Diggle will vote for me? But he did love Lily and she was about as blameless in Digg's death as I was, so it's hard to say. Wood I think votes for Lily? He's had long enough to cool down and not be a bitter asshole, and she was one of his closest allies. So it comes down to Barty, RAB, and Moody. I think(?) I'm more likely to get Moody, but as I would have killed RAB for this, less likely to get him. So it'd come down to Barty. As funny as it'd be to force him to pick between us to decide the winner of the whole damn game, I don't really want to find out who he picks.
So this looks winnable to me? But it's going to be a hard fight. I think the biggest problem with it is if my read is correct, taking RAB is so much the better option that taking Lily makes me look stupid, and that has a multiplicative effect on the damage to my chances. Like, I have fewer safe votes AND my position for arguing why I should win is weaker. But if she took me, I think I'd win.
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What if it's Lily vs. RAB?
Lily: Barty, Diggle, (Yaxley) RAB: Lucius, HK Undecided: Wood, Moody, Fleur, Tonks
I think in this case, it's not hard to imagine Lily sweeping it. She's so persuasive and charming, and I think Wood's more likely to go for her if she's available. Even if Fleur and Tonks hold a grudge on her (and I do not see why they would) I feel like Moody probably goes for Lily? It's so hard to know if Moody and Black ever had a working relationship. Moody claimed to have not, but Moody was also working with Fleur, who was apparently unbelievably tight with Black. So especially given how little I know about RAB's relationships, I feel like I can't discount that. But I think I only care about this case in as much as I want to be able to argue it should be avoided to both RAB and Lily. Lily won't buy it but RAB might, as I think he'd feel more confident that Fleur/Tonks stick with him over me than he would Lucius/HK stick with him over Lily. They both worked with her at points in the game I don't think they did with Black? So that's probably a safe argument.
So ultimately the takeaway here; I can't persuade Lily, but I can make a credible argument to Black I'll be an easier beat than she'd be. And I should take RAB if I win, logically. There's no reason to gamble the loyalty of my allies' votes and no reason to believe she'd make any kind of F2 deal. She's been trying to kill me for rounds now, if I make it to the end it's easy for me to argue I've already bested her. Hilariously, tragically, because she's convinced herself I'm the biggest threat and acted on that for several rounds in a row, to her I now am the biggest threat.
Well, it's a very sad but simple conclusion for the logic. Emotionally, I'd rather take her to the end anyways, but given she's made it pretty clear she's going to take RAB, I see no reason to say I'd do otherwise.
Okay, now to think hard about what you might make us do for this challenge.
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Post by Corban Yaxley on May 26, 2022 5:38:07 GMT 10
So first thought; of course the last challenge is a meta challenge about us being maybe somewhat Harry Potter fans doing a Harry Potter thing. Shit like this is why I think we're so similar, Peter. This is the kind of thing I'd love to do. So, it's probably a quiz. You're saying ties are extremely unlikely, so I'm betting it's going to be a mix of public and private information. Public info: What Harry Potter fan-based things have been present in this ORG? - Challenge 0: Hardcore book-buying fans.
- Challenge 1: Each other.
- Challenge 2: Muggle Quidditch
- Challenge 3: Wizard Rock, Harry Potter D&D, (Poetry?)
- Challenge 4: Shipping
- Challenge 5: Minecraft (/Lego)
- Challenge 6: Spoilers.
- Challenge 7: Potter Puppet Pals
- Challenge 8: Gifts (? Kind of a catch-all for other fun ideas.)
- Challenge 9: Harry Potter themed weddings/special occasions, Death Clock, Harry Potter and the Cursed Child, We Are From Hogwarts, Buzzfeed quizzes, It's Been Me, My Immortal (Fanfic, non HP) Dark Lord Funk,
- Challenge 10: Podcasts (mentioned Muffliato), Witch, Please, Book 1, Episode 6, The Real Weird Sisters, Sorting Hat Episode for Survivor 40 WaW, Unspoiled! Harry Potter, Book 1 Episode 9, Harry Potter and the Sacred Text, Episode: Love(Book 1, Chapter 17), Potterless, Book 1 Episode 2, The Quibbler, Episode 6, Mugglecast, Episode 502, Chatty Potter - Harry Potter / Lord of the Rings Crossover Episode, Binge Mode Harry Potter, Book 1 Episode 4
- Challenge 11: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality (by Eliezer Yudkowsky/Less Wrong).
- Challenge 12: Cosplay
- Challenge 13: AVPM
- Challenge 14: Homemade props/cosplay/fanart/fanfiction
- Challenge 15: Fan Fiction/Shipping
- Challenge 16: Charity/Positive Changes
More than 30 aspects of the fandom without doing anything official. I love that the Wikihow one included an image from how to leave Pottermore, but not the 'how to join it'.
Wands -----
Who has what Wand?
Alecto -> HK -> Yaxley Figg -> ??? -> Lily Travers -> HK -> Yaxley Aberforth -> (Moody) -> Diggle -> Yaxley Rodolphus -> HK -> Yaxley Mundungus -> Kingsley -> Moody -> Diggle -> Yaxley Pyrites -> Lucius -> Wood -> Lily or Black Igor -> Lucius -> Wood -> Lily or Black Kingsley -> Moody -> Diggle -> Yaxley Tonks -> Fleur -> Black HK -> Yaxley Lucius -> Wood -> Lily or Black Fleur -> Black Moody -> Diggle -> Barty -> Yaxley Wood -> Lily or Black Diggle -> Barty -> Yaxley Barty -> Yaxley There were 10 spells from HP MOR, 10 from canon, and one random one from "Harry Potter and the Scrambled Sorting" (Cascado) Okay, I should do more prep but I need to start now, so I guess this is going to be good enough.
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Post by Peter Pettigrew on May 26, 2022 6:20:36 GMT 10
Can't comment on your Wizengamot or Challenge speculations, obviously, but keep them coming!
As far as the tiebreaker goes: We can absolutely add the rules/mechanics of it together post-game as they fascinate me and Survivor has a long history of trying to find the perfect way to deal with it, so add that to the list.
The length of this particular Challenge I'm willing to admit was an error - it was adapted from other tiebreakers I've seen and altered to make it more complex, held in reserve for my last Game but never played, then adapted again for this without ever being testable... and clearly some things went wrong through all those transitions, and undetected, as we were anticipating it would take 20-30 minutes at most. Once it began though and the high difficulty level became clear to us we ran into other issues of when/how it's okay to interfere with the rules laid out, in a Challenge where we had no way to track your progress and know for certain whether the thing was about to be won, without any assistance required, without asking you to update us and potentially causing you to lose time doing so, while your opponent kept searching. All issues which are also worthy of discussion, post-game. Just know that you're points have been noted (and for the most part were noticed by us at the same time you encountered them) and everyone involved will learn from it. And that I'm truly sorry you had to suffer through it for as long as you did, even if the outcome was positive for you overall.
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Post by Corban Yaxley on May 26, 2022 7:07:13 GMT 10
I mean, like I said; the challenge would have been really cool if I hadn't been putting off breakfast and getting to work! I just think, fundamentally, that if a challenge is being used as a tie-breaker there are a ton of extra constraints put on it, so many that I'm not confident I could design a good challenge around it. And I can absolutely see how once a competitive game is underway, trying to change the rules without breaking equality is extremely hard. I'd have ideas for solutions to some of those problems but definitely others are extremely tricky to solve and my ideas are founded in a fundamental ignorance of the logistics of running these boards so I'd hesitate to even call them out as solutions without more research. I mean, I even initially declined the third set of hints because the first + second had been enough for me to get up to 2/3 and I felt I was within five minutes before getting 3/3 and didn't want to risk a clue tipping Barty off too hard. (Ironically, the third clue cut my search space enough that I had the last thing I couldn't find in almost no time.) And I was playing with a huge amount of sleep-debt and some bad assumptions on ways I could be clever, certainly if it was during the day and I was more alert and aware, it would have taken me half of the time. I'd only say it was suffering for me in the sense that I was dreading needing to then be on the board all day for negotiations or another challenge without any time to write to myself in here, but between the other two folks heading off before I got back and this challenge I'm about to try being half an hour, I'm much less crushed by tasks than I feared.
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Post by Corban Yaxley on May 26, 2022 7:28:45 GMT 10
Who has what Wand? Alecto -> HK -> Yaxley Figg -> ??? -> Lily Travers -> HK -> Yaxley Aberforth -> (Moody) -> Diggle -> Yaxley Rodolphus -> HK -> Yaxley Mundungus -> Kingsley -> Moody -> Diggle -> Yaxley Pyrites -> Lucius -> Wood -> Lily or Black Igor -> Lucius -> Wood -> Lily or Black Kingsley -> Moody -> Diggle -> Yaxley Tonks -> Fleur -> Black HK -> Yaxley Lucius -> Wood -> Lily or Black Fleur -> Black Moody -> Diggle -> Barty -> Yaxley Wood -> Lily or Black Diggle -> Barty -> Yaxley Barty -> Yaxley I feel like such a genius right now, even though a chunk of these had to be rethought upon learning the rules for how giving wands works. Knowing that sets can be split makes me think every spot where I said Lucius gave a wand to Wood, he gave it to Barty instead. And Barty, being eternally torn between Lily and I, split them up. So he would have given Lily the following; Pyrites Igor Lucius Figg (maybe ??) It feels a bit weird if Barty gave me substantially more than Lily? Maybe this theory is wrong, and he gave me all his wands. Pyrites gives to Lucius, Igor gives to Lucius. Where do Lucius's wands end up? I do not think he gives it to Lily, Fleur, Diggle, or Moody (and those last two mean it would have come to me anyways). So did he give those wands to Black? If so Black has decent odds of winning this challenge, but I suspect my having half of the Order wands might mess with him. Ah well, I've submitted my guess either way. Very fun last challenge, I absolutely adore the idea of challenges and the social aspect blending together and this is one of the better executions on the concept.
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Post by Corban Yaxley on May 26, 2022 21:48:36 GMT 10
Wow I had a decent number of these right. Why on earth did Barty leave stuff to RAB? Also it is hilarious to me that I adjusted my thinking yesterday to account for Lucius not giving Wood his wands but straight up forgot to account for the fact Barty couldn't give Lily any. I was more incredibly tired than I realized.
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Post by Dolores Umbridge on May 26, 2022 23:17:13 GMT 10
Congratulations on F2, Corban ![:<3](http://i.imgur.com/L3NpwEv.gif) How do you feel? In a nutshell
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Post by Corban Yaxley on May 27, 2022 1:19:31 GMT 10
Thanks!
Right now, I'm mostly feeling exhausted but that's more a function of outside circumstances being a bit difficult again than anything in this game. When I first saw I won the FIC I was thrilled for sure!
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Post by Peter Pettigrew on May 27, 2022 19:52:29 GMT 10
So in all the excitement last night I didn't make it in here to Officially congratulate you on reaching the very end of the game, Mr First-Time Finalist! ![:imperio](https://i.imgur.com/Zel27RM.gif) You certainly have much to be proud of here! And while I'm not going to pester you with specific questions while you're busy taking a well-earned breather and/or preparing frantically for the Final Magical Council... if you do want to share any personal reflections about the journey you've had in The ORG of the Phoenix, what the accomplishment of surviving until the very end means to you, or how you feel going into the Wizengamot Vote - well we'd love to hear it. ![:<3](http://i.imgur.com/L3NpwEv.gif)
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Post by Corban Yaxley on May 28, 2022 0:47:01 GMT 10
Wrote most of this yesterday before getting distracted, but for posterity I won't edit my initial thoughts too much? I suspect the initial reactions are maybe more interesting than a day later.
----
Alright, I've had a few hours to actually let this sink in. Right now I have a terrible migraine so I doubt I'll be posting much of use here today, but I figure I may as well get some final thoughts down. I think tomorrow will be the day I attempt to write out my actual speech? But today I'm just going to indulge myself in one last meandering and deeply pointless post reflecting on how I viewed this game. Hopefully it'll help me get my thoughts down on how to write a Jury speech tomorrow but truthfully, this is another case of things bouncing around in my head and needing to type it to get it out.
First order of business; getting the blue fire icon makes me look like a host, which feels like a very cool way to signify the folks that got to the end.
I'm kind of stunned I made it this far? This was a strange ride. Very fun, but very strange. I felt like my initial impressions as Yaxley were pretty rough, and my incredibly difficult and stressful schedule in the early game meant I always felt like I was on the backfoot and I don't ever know if I fully caught up? Having played exactly two of these, my points of comparison both felt very different than this.
Asbel was basically just me, with some extra smileys. I don't think I'll ever have the capacity to wear my heart on my sleeve that much in another game. But early Asbel was so green, and had to learn so quickly, that I never even considered how I was doing? Asbel was eagerly concerned with doing his best, without any sense of self-perception or deceit. Obviously not a winning way to play the game, even if I'd made it to the end? And I don't think I ever would, either; Looking at the post-Moro boot, I can't picture an F4 in that game where I get to live AND get a winning set of votes. My mindset of 'losing means try harder!' meant I couldn't actually allow myself to take some damage, accept it, and continue. But it also means that early game, I thought having a really close friend in Naus meant I was doing amazing! And then when Obaba planned on killing me but I managed to avoid it, wow that was good! Every step I took in that game felt like if I wasn't winning I was going to die there. Obviously I understood once Naus died that the spectrum of outcomes was a little more interesting than "Be voted out" or "be closer to winning", something I expect is obvious to folks who watched the TV show, even without playing an ORG. But until that point I felt like I had just been doing better and better. So I felt like I hadn't made a Naus equivalent here. Frankly, I don't think I ever will; I suspect there was something deeply special and magical about a connection so strong, that formed so quickly, between me and someone teaching me the game. I've had other close allies, but in all of those cases there was a bigger sense of equals, of working together to play the game. With Naus there was a sense that she could have any number of smarter, more clever, or more reliable allies, but she took me in because that's the kind of person she was. In a strange way, looking back at that game, Asbel's journey was so thoroughly tied to a small handful of players in that game (Naus, Okkoto, Ashitaka, Granmamamere, Kushana)
Henry initially was conceptualized as "Asbel, but evil"? But I wound up fleshing out my view of him incredibly thoroughly; Henry was childlike, full of wonder and confusion but willing to go along with almost anything? Extremely friendly, but also willing to be incredibly cutting and borderline sociopathic at points. Henry had a good number of folks he really liked and a good number of folks he worked with because he'd do what made sense. Nothing rivaling the Naus-Asbel connection, but a lot of connections reminiscent of how I viewed San-Asbel, Ashi-Asbel, or Yupa-Asbel. The FEH game's shifting and constant changes of the format in addition to there being not one but two swaps before a merge meant every few rounds there was some new, kind of insane situation to figure out. And the formats were generally very puzzly? So I couldn't help myself, I had to spend days of my life figuring out how to approach things and then sharing it with my relevant friends. Interestingly, I've started reading Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality, and I think Henry was kind of like that version of Harry? Extremely logical, wanting to make friends and trick his friends into being friends with each other, but being totally, wildly unwilling to risk losing and willing to go through hell to make it happen. Not quite as arrogant, hopefully? But I suspect occasionally I wasn't far from it. Henry had what felt like an incredibly solid start; it turns out being hilariously child-like, convinced you're a hero, and being utterly incapable of actually understanding morality meant for a very fun character to play and by the first vote I felt like 2/3 of my starting Side would have been happy to keep me over most of the rest, and a couple of those folks might have been willing to even really fight for it. Because of so many swaps, Henry had a journey full of crazy ups and downs and probably has my to-date biggest achievement in an ORG, managing to convince a set of four folks working together from the beginning of the game to betray each other right before the merge where they needed to work together, just to keep sweet Henry alive. It took every bit of my capacity and skill to manage, although doing so ultimately put a massive target on my back I could never shake.
Comparatively speaking, Yaxley's beginning felt quite slow? Lucius wanted to work with him right away but I kind of guessed Lucius wanted to work with everyone right away. Timezones felt like they were in the way of really connecting with large chunks of the cast, and my on-a-whim decisions to go with "Memory charm accidentally overwrote my personality" wound up feeling like it was more trouble than it was worth initially; I had to break character several times to explain what I was thinking because folks assumed I just didn't know the theme at all. Between that and my early rules/names carelessness, it felt like I was playing a massively worse game than either Asbel OR Henry, which was discouraging. Getting no OWL post didn't help, because I felt it suggested Diggle was fairing similarly poorly. While I know I wasn't supposed to guess IDs, I will confess in the back of my mind, it seemed very likely no one would even think to ask to play with me and I'd therefor have another new player with few connections or games under their belt as a partner, so that played into my worries about him not connecting well too. I'd say the only folks I really felt like I actually 'landed' with in any good way were Barty and HK? I felt that the 'shovel vs wand' rant was the only properly funny joke I made all game until merge.
The swap was a situation where I recognized it had gone very well for me, but also that it was more or less dumb luck? If I or Lily/Barty/Wood trade places with a lot of folks from the Dept, I think it goes pretty poorly? Igor seemed to not trust me (or anyone) at all, HK and I had a rocky period as well. Kingsley seemed alright but I was nervous about making an alliance with someone the rest of the game seemed to have written off. So I wound up going with the flow here? I don't think I made any particularly clever plays or decisions, just went along with what I thought would work out and cautioned folks against things that I thought could go poorly. Merge wasn't much different; the pairs thing came together without me really having any input on it and I more or less just rode along with it? I let Kingsley go over Moody or Black when I thought I had a personally better relationship with him than the other two. HK vanished so I didn't complain when he was targeted, and I relied on whoever did that Wood <-> Diggle swap to save me. I still don't know who did that, either? That kind of bothers me. The only real play I feel I had a hand in was the Lucius play; not that I was the impetus for it but that I had positioned myself to believably be up for it with the folks who would want it? I'd guessed post-Manor that Lucius being extremely overactive meant I'd be seen as one of his henchmen and needed a way out of it. After that I just kind of rode the wave again. Fleur going wasn't the plan (and probably nearly cost me the game), Wood going was solid as a foregone conclusion? And then Barty did his shenanigans to get Diggle to try to force me to take him to the end? And then I needed to win a tie-breaker and probably even the wand challenge as well and the only reason I think I won that is because Barty couldn't give Lily all of his wands, and tried to do a bit of cleverness to make RAB look more dangerous in a way that meant where Lily thought some wands went was incorrect. Well, that and knowing all of the early-eliminated Death Eaters had given HK their wand. Thanks HK. Hell, I was immune thanks to challenge wins for 4/12 rounds. 1/3 of the merge. It's not hard to argue I would have died if I hadn't had immunity a handful of those times, even if I don't think that's true? But of course, I wouldn't know that's true. I just know that the round I lost immunity I was nearly killed and the round after that it was a tie I had to win. Not exactly a masterful display of wit or cleverness.
I'm not sure if it's a cruel irony that a game I feel shaky about in terms of my own activity and strategy is the one I have to defend, of it's that just how these things go? Asbel at least felt like he did something clever with the iron pellet even if it didn't pan out long term and Henry had no shortage of situations he felt he navigated very well. Yaxley, by comparison, has felt incredibly passive. Some of that is incidental, a quirk of having trouble being online when everyone else is and my own unexpectedly demanding schedule at points in this game. Some of that was intentional, after seeing that I was 2 for 2 in my own big plays backfiring in messy and unpleasant ways so far. My main hope here is that folks generally vote who they felt closest too; I should get Lily/Barty/Digg for sure and probably HK as well. I could see Lucius and Wood being a bit harder to talk to? I don't expect Fleur or Tonks to particularly give me the time of day. I have no idea if Moody was friends with anyone other than Diggle or myself.
--- (Next day)
In a weird way, this game feels over to me. I know there's still the big finale left, that I should be thinking about how to present things, how things looked, how to win, but I have to admit a large part of my brain believes that most people will judge based on their view of what has already happened. I think for me the FTC feels less like part of the game and more like the post-game wind down, a discussion of how the game went, who did what, etc. etc. These are very frequent in board games and I absolutely love them and am glad to have them here, but it isn't exactly a useful feeling when I'm supposed to still be aggressively trying to win. I think I played fine? I think RAB played a bit worse but had substantially worse luck and I would not begrudge anyone to crown him their winner. I am hopeful that my read is correct and that I do get the majority of votes and that my choice to take RAB because he seems less persuasive than Lily is correct.
I suspect at some point, folks will wonder the true reason why I took RAB? Perhaps I am a fool for having done so, but ultimately I could think of good arguments for both to win, and so I decided to take the one who had done a worse job of persuading me to keep them. After all, if I find them unpersuasive I can hope many other folks in the game agree? Lily's arguments as to why to not take RAB were pitch perfect in my mind, pointing out her own weaknesses while pointing out his strengths. She also did a good job of not comparing herself directly to him but instead focusing on the fact she thought I could beat her safely, which is a good idea if both parties agree she is stronger than RAB. In his last message to me prior to the council, RAB's logic about the wands and how Barty would have shared all that information with Lily, actively doesn't make sense? Barty couldn't send her wands by the rules of the game to begin with, and had he thought to share that information she would have won FIC, so obviously she didn't know that much? The more believable logic is that Barty sent RAB the wands from Lucius (and the wands Lucius had received) to RAB in the hopes of making me think Lucius would vote for RAB and therefor be more likely to keep Lily.
I'm going to have to go read some FTC speeches in order to figure out how to write one, because I have no idea where to start.
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