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Post by Corban Yaxley on May 3, 2022 2:38:32 GMT 10
This will be the thread where I keep my challenge results. I'm setting it up in advance of attempting the "first" challenge.
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Post by Corban Yaxley on May 3, 2022 3:24:33 GMT 10
1. Slytherin 2. Hufflepuff 3. Dog 4. Dog 5. Book 7 6. Book 4 7. Book 5 8. Severus Snape 9. Minerva McGonagall 10. Wingdings 11. Riddle's Diary 12. Invis Cloak 13. Bellatrix Lestrange 14. James Potter 15. Lucius Malfoy and Oliver Wood 16. Pyrites and Alastor 'Mad-Eye' Moody 17. Barty Crouch Jr and Lily Potter 18. #2 19. Lime 20. Blubber
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Post by Dolores Umbridge on May 3, 2022 21:24:46 GMT 10
Hello Corban Yaxley Here are your challenge results! Your partner submitted the following answers: You made 5 matches, and so finished with a score of 5! This was enough to earn you second place in the challenge, and the 10 House Points that come with it. Congratulations!
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Post by Corban Yaxley on May 3, 2022 21:37:18 GMT 10
I cannot believe Wingdings was enough to win this challenge despite Digg misunderstanding or not answering 1/3 of the questions. Incredible.
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Post by Corban Yaxley on May 4, 2022 3:54:48 GMT 10
Okay, notes for myself before I attempt the second challenge.
I'm allowed to post every ten seconds. Realistically I'll probably be closer to 15 seconds per post, so I'll assume that for now.
- If I see a Quaffle, I can accept a 2/3 chance to score with a 15 second time penalty, or a ?? chance to score immediately, based on how likely it is I see another Quaffle next.
- If I see a Bludger, I can accept a 15 penalty or risk a 30 second penalty on every single post I make, presumably including ones after I already suffer a 30 second penalty.
- If I see a Snitch, I can end the challenge and score 50 more points, worth five successful Quaffles.
To be able to calculate these I'd need to know the odds of seeing any given ball in advance. I can't know that until I'm playing but I can guess. How do I think Peter might have assigned the probabilities?
Option A: There are three possible outcomes. Assign each one an equal chance, so all balls have a 1/3 of appearing back to back. Seems extremely unlikely. Option B: There are four balls active in a game of quidditch. A Quaffle, two bludgers, and a snitch. So assign each active ball a 1 in 4? Seems very unlikely. Option C: There are seven players active in a game of quidditch. Three chasers, two beaters, a keeper, and a seeker. Each of them only ever intentionally interact with one ball, so assign the odds of each ball based on that chance? So Quaffle would be 4/7, Beater would be 2/7, and Seeker would be 1/7. That looks right, by my gut instinct. Maybe cut the keeper and get 3/6, 2/6, 1/6 but that really makes Quaffle odds bad so maybe not. Option D: Check how many times in an average game of Quidditch (real life or fantasy) that each ball affects the game. I don't know how to calculate bludger impact but if the average score is around 250, then the Quaffle affects the score 10 times to the Snitch's once? I dunno, if this is what you did I don't have the time to math it out. Option E: Peter has done game theory math to sort out how to make this most optimally interesting. On one hand, I wouldn't put it past him. On the other, if that's what he's doing there's no point in guessing at what would be better, I'd just need to be able to do probabilities in my head while posting every 10 seconds, which no thanks.
I feel like C (or some variation of it) makes the most sense to me. I can try to keep track of how much my expectations are changing with what I see, I suppose. I'm going to blindly assume I'm at least close to right.
Quaffle Strategy: So if I'm basically right, the odds of seeing a Quaffle is 4/7? The odds of seeing them back to back fall to 16/49. Pretty substantially awful. I don't think the time save will help that? If I lose a third of the score-able quaffles to aggression, how many extra do I need to balance that? I get X with scoring 'safely' and X/2 scoring aggressively, so the time save would need to let me see at least double the number of Quaffles. That seems unlikely.
Bludger strategy: Once I see a Bludger, every ball has a 2/7 chance of locking me out of seeing two-three more balls at least. 5/7 times I don't see a bludger on one ball, so 25/49 times I don't see a bludger on two. Basically every two balls is a coinflip. No. Always beat things away.
Snitch Strategy: The big key to the snitch is figuring out at what point it's likely I don't see another one. Assuming I get three balls in a minute (allowing for Quaffle or Bludger shenanigans to slow me down), if the snitch is 1/7, how many balls before I expect to see it? (6/7) ^ 10 is roughly 2% So I have a 98% chance of seeing at least one more snitch if I have at least 10 more balls. If 6-7 of those are Quaffles I score 40-50 points off them. So at three balls a minute, I should stop around 12 minutes in, assuming 1/7. If it's something like 1/10 I still have a 65% chance to see another snitch at 10 balls. If it's substantially worse odds than that, I'll know if I don't see a snitch in the first 15 balls at the beginning. In general a decent metric would be to take the amount of balls it took to see two snitches, and then use that as the timeline? But that's quite complicated.
I'm going to start the challenge in a minute here, but if the site does have trouble partway through, I'm fine to just take this strategy as the rule for how I would have behaved and the average amount of time it took me to get another ball, if we can't sort out a way to continue easily. If the site does go down during it and I want to make some drastic changes to the plan, I'll message JustJaking on ORGY as requested.
So to reiterate;
- If I see a Quaffle, always post I'm going for the left hoop. - If I see a Bludger, always redirect that bludger. - If I see a Snitch, ignore it unless I'm 12 minutes in or higher.
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Post by Corban Yaxley on May 4, 2022 3:57:24 GMT 10
LIFESASNITCHANDTHENYOUFLY
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Post by Corban Yaxley on May 4, 2022 3:57:36 GMT 10
sgCmmcSy
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Post by Corban Yaxley on May 4, 2022 3:57:48 GMT 10
BEAT THAT BLUDGER
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Post by Corban Yaxley on May 4, 2022 3:58:04 GMT 10
kUVzJBjg
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Post by Corban Yaxley on May 4, 2022 3:58:16 GMT 10
BEAT THAT BLUDGER
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Post by Corban Yaxley on May 4, 2022 3:58:27 GMT 10
sC806ZEY
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Post by Corban Yaxley on May 4, 2022 3:58:38 GMT 10
mu4F9iZB
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Post by Corban Yaxley on May 4, 2022 3:58:49 GMT 10
LEFT HOOP
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Post by Corban Yaxley on May 4, 2022 3:59:03 GMT 10
dk1Sol6C
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Post by Corban Yaxley on May 4, 2022 3:59:15 GMT 10
gJ567n_d
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Post by Corban Yaxley on May 4, 2022 3:59:26 GMT 10
BEAT THAT BLUDGER
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Post by Corban Yaxley on May 4, 2022 3:59:38 GMT 10
8Cl9AD0l
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Post by Corban Yaxley on May 4, 2022 4:01:42 GMT 10
QUgi0PQz
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Post by Corban Yaxley on May 4, 2022 4:01:53 GMT 10
BEAT THAT BLUDGER
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Post by Corban Yaxley on May 4, 2022 4:02:05 GMT 10
MsW2MDrH
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