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Post by Peter Pettigrew on May 5, 2022 22:26:57 GMT 10
Your first full week in The ORG of the Phoenix is done! Congratulations for making it through to the weekend ![:kudo](http://i.imgur.com/haoRaBw.gif) Feel free to update us with your thoughts all weekend long as you see fit, but here are some question prompts to get you started: 1. How have you enjoyed your first week here? What moments stand out to you? What do you hope will perhaps be different next week? 2. What do you expect would have happened had Malfoy Manor lost Immunity today and voted for a second time? 3. Now that you've had more time to get to know your Side Buddies, who do you feel closest to? Please rank them all in order of how much you trust them. 4. If your Side needs to vote again on Sunday night, what would you like to see happen? What do you expect to see happen? 5. What do you know about the dynamics on the other Side? How do you think your PBvO partner is faring, and how do you expect your reunion to go if/when it occurs? 6. Between Pureblood vs Order, House Points, Switch and Flick, Owl Post, Matched Challenges, and Hidden Immunity Items... how are the Twists affecting the Game? How will they be impacting your decision-making moving forward?
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Post by Corban Yaxley on May 6, 2022 7:07:01 GMT 10
Cheers, glad I made it this far. Work's still hell but the light at the end of the tunnel is almost there. Wish I hadn't passed out so hard last night, I missed talking to everyone this morning. I'm looking forward to a quiet weekend IRL and also hoping for a quiet weekend here, where I can quietly set some useful things up for myself and analyze this new challenge without too much in the way of being interrupted by Missives actually making me play the game.
It's been a (mercifully) chill week, for the most part. I can't tell if everyone's just really quiet or short-spoken or if my aggressively blunt and initially dumb & short-spoken attitude has made everyone treat me like that. That being said, wow I am not complaining, because I don't have sufficient energy to write consistent novels to the entire cast right now. That being said; it might be (largely) chill but it's definitely not boring. There are plenty of spots where I'm beginning to suspect some rising tensions or bits of friction between folks. It feels like it's quiet, but it's not inactive by any stretch.
My main hope next week is I do well in a challenge! The quidditch challenge was really fun to think about but as is always the case with that much input and output randomness, it's hard to feel like I could have pulled out a win with my luck being poor. Obviously there was some wiggle room there, it's partially on me; With a calmer eye I could have easily pushed my luck for another three minutes of scoring time and maybe earned 30-40 more points? And if I hadn't taken the decision deals, that might have been another 30-40 points. But unless those minutes came with a really good hot streak I'm still nearly 80-100 points behind the top scores. I wish I'd realized that all of the decisions were locked off as soon as I saw one, rather than thinking I could do both the Owl Post and the extra Idol clue.
My brain functions best on math-y things, so I'll have my fingers crossed for at least one one more challenge next week where that will be useful.
Proooobably Pyrites dies? Unless HK/Igor/Pyrites/RAB/Rod are playing the three of us. I really don't see it though. I think our position right now is pretty solid for the time being. There are bits here and there that make me think it's inevitable it falls to pieces but I don't think it will be in the next round or two.
Barty: I really like this guy. He can be bizarrely nervous about unimportant stuff sometimes, but he comes across as really genuine. Being super worried about taking a deal that lowered his score was cute, and him being really apologetic it cost him the game when his game wasn't a deciding factor AND we just voted out a player who by their own admission couldn't dedicate enough time to this? Like I said, it's very sweet. He feels a little more steady than Lucius, my other best ally.
Lucius: I think I probably trust Barty and Lucius relatively equally when it comes to actually trading info or working together. But I probably trust Barty's skill and steadiness more than Lucius'? I touched on it at the end of round 3, but I find myself disagreeing with some of Lucius' more dramatic or conspiratorial tendencies. I'm not sure why he thinks there are going to be iron-clad Day 1 alliances? My experience is admittedly limited but from what I understand, they actually seem pretty rare. They didn't meaningfully exist at all in FEH and even my "Day 1" Ghibli alliance with Naus took more than a day to actually get 100% online. If RAB/Rod have a day one alliance with each other, that's kind of believable? But I don't really buy they decided to loop a bunch of other folks in that quickly AND wrote off Lucius at the same time AND thoroughly conspired to set up another fake group with him. Much more likely the sacred 5 doesn't feel as tight or secure as anyone'd like, so they're now looking into other options. Some noteworthy quotes:
Interesting that Lucius admitted they (RAB/Rod) were his initial core 3 to us, and that each of them picked one of the three of myself, Barty, and Carrow. Mentioning that RAB picked up Carrow over the rest gives maybe more than he intended. It means Lucius picked one of me and Barty and Lestrange picked the other. I don't have any sense of if Lestrange and Barty give each other any thought at all? But I also didn't think I'd made enough of a good impression on Lestrange to pick me either. He seems like a bit of an enigma at this point.
Final point against Lucius is his weird "Well I've heard people talk" nonsense about trying to get Travers killed. Just seems like some pointless lies, I think everyone he suggested it to at minimum guessed it was just his own idea. Final point for Lucius is he actually admitted to getting the Immunity Item. Honestly not sure I would have done that? I feel like I can 100% trust him right now but need to be wary about how much that number can fluctuate as the game goes on.
Pyrites: Ironically, I trust Pyrites the third most of the group right simply by virtue of it being really obvious we aren't working together. So if something dramatic happens and I suddenly need to be really flexible, I'll at least have a better sense of when he is going to work with me.
HK: I've had a solid relationship with HK all week. Do I think there's a decent chance he voted Lucius to make Lucius panic and reconsider some of his allies to better insert himself into a core? Yeah, decent odds that happened but I can understand why he'd never breathe a word of it to someone else if he did. And he's also been refreshingly clear to state what he wants and how he sees a path to it without coming across too strongly or deceptively. The only thing keeping me from putting more faith into him is he does seem the most likely to jump ship if he's getting something out of it.
Igor: This one is interesting. The schtick of lying to poor Yaxley about his family life is pretty funny but also kind of dumb. I've sort-of warmed up to it? But only sort of. The main thing I'm not sure on with Igor is ironically because of my closer allies (read: Lucius) having sudden, extremely strong faith he's more loyal to them than HK, when materially I don't see much difference. Igor's the one that Pyrites is gunning for, so he has the least room to maneuver right now without taking some major risks. I feel like if the situation opens up to some new folks, I wouldn't be too surprised to see him flock to others quickly.
Rodolphus: Of the two "Outside" members of the Sacred 5, I trust Rod more than Reg. Rod doesn't give me much, but he does give me the occasional thing to work with and he has actually confirmed independently he likes our really short and to the point relationship. I'd like it if it had a little more discussion but I can understand him wanting to just keep things very brief, especially in the early game.
Regulus: I have no idea what he's thinking at any time and we share almost nothing together. The only things we did share are things I initiated, as well. Knowing he's in a secret threesome with Rod and Lucius is not at all surprising. Honestly at this point I'm assuming we're not working together at all, if we wind up swapped together and apart from the rest I expect unless the rest of the folks we swap with have their own overriding drama I could see the both of us selling each other out?
I'd expect to see Pyrites die. I'd like to see it too, despite putting him as one of my most trusted? After all, just because I know where I stand with him doesn't really mean I'm invested in changing that.
Tricky to say, given how little I've heard about the dynamics of the other side. As far as I can tell some combination of Lily/Fleur/Diggle/Wood are working together? But also Digg's talking to Moody, so that's interesting. Wood highlighted Fleur & Tonks as other solid folks they want to work with, and I'm predicting at 9 they built a set of 5 to work with? The fact that a couple of them reached out to Lestrange but he never responded is also interesting; either he's got allies he wants to message on the other side of the fence, or he's not sending post at all. Looking at the list of options, if he and Reg were tied together closely, he might have sent to Mundungus or Moody in the early rounds, especially if he is in a closer trio with Pyrites. That'd mean a potential Moody/Mundungus/maaaybe Diggle or Kingsley set?
I'll answer this either tomorrow or the next day, I'm at the end of my day here.
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Post by Corban Yaxley on May 7, 2022 12:33:08 GMT 10
I'm glad I waited on writing something for number 6, because HK's plan to try to abuse the Switch mechanic to keep all of us alive is going to suddenly affect the game a bunch.
So okay, twist stuff. Pureblood vs. Order & matched challenges effect how to think about them, because it means even if you totally fail you only lose one point out of 8. It was kind of neat for some challenges, but it's really come into it's own in a challenge where we can work together like this one. Other than that, so far it's been pretty chill. House Points are neat but right now it's too hard to sort out how to best acquire them as most either don't involve mechanics we have access to or understand. Owl Post is fun? But I don't know how much sending/receiving info is going to change how folks feel. I think the most that these twists have done so far is generate some discussion between players that gives a bit of insight into how they're thinking.
Sorry for the short response, I want to actually figure out how to think about the challenge before I go pass out.
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