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Post by Peter Pettigrew on May 9, 2022 23:14:33 GMT 10
Congratulations on your first Immunity win as The Daily Prophet... however narrow that win may have been ![:giggle](https://i.imgur.com/GdXDrBY.gif) 1. What do you think would have happened had you needed to Vote last round, after just one day together? 2. Do you expect the same thing to happen if you need to Vote at the end of this round? Or are things shifting as you spend more time together? 3. How do you perceive the Side dynamics? Who do you think is working together, and where do you think you sit? 4. Will Mundungus leaving have any ripple effect on your Side? With Owl Post and PBvO partners in play, is it possible for The Daily Prophet to operate without considering the events on the other Side? 5. We still haven't seen a Switch Charm used. Does the new ability to cast it upon anyone change your approach toward it?
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Post by Corban Yaxley on May 10, 2022 5:33:30 GMT 10
Thanks, I spent too long on the "lake" and wound up contributing next to nothing. ![:P](http://images.proboards.com/new/tongue.png) Probably Kingsley dies. Probably Kingsley still dies. Ok, got to the question I think has an interesting answer and also the one I need to actually give some thought. So right now my understanding is that by default right now there are four pairs. HK-Igor is a pair, Barty-Yax is a pair, Lily-Wood is a pair, and Lily-Barty is a pair. Under this framework, Kingsley's basically fucked, because of the way numbers worked out? He has no power with any of these pairs. Like, if he joins one pair, the other two can still easily control everything. If two pairs join together and he joins that set, he's an obvious fifth. So no one has incentive to work with him short term and he has no allies on the other side of the map to give him a ton of worth long term. He only gets to survive if he can actually persuade 2/3 of the group that not only is he worth keeping over the last 1/3, but that both of the pairs he'd be working with need to think he'd be in best with them. It's just illogical for anyone to go for. I feel very badly for him, because I wound up in a similar but less dire version of this situation in FEH (persuade 3/4 of a solid 4 to keep you over the last member of the 4) and finessing my way through it required every drop of social skill I could bring to bear and a fairly deep understanding of how each individual felt acquired over working with them for at least a full week, + having a really compelling argument that I had other friends but couldn't trust them 100% because they'd killed each other, so I had value but wasn't dangerous. Kingsley has fewer cards to play in a fraction of the time. I think the only way he survives is if someone on the other side of the fence wants to flee their side, or if multiple pairs fracture. Unfortunately the switch is a real consideration. So these pairs; how stable are they, and how do they combine? I trust Barty here. If he's playing me, I'll just die knowing I was always 100% screwed, and if I make jury before he kills me, I'd vote for him for being so good at this. It would just be too much skill to ignore. And I have no desire to burn that bridge either, now or for the foreseeable future. I've been burned on being too invested in ride or dies before, but this one feels pretty good. How stable is Lily-Wood? My impression is that it's very stable; I gave Lily an option to show if she was less than enthusiastic about Wood, because I only received owls from him and so I didn't have a good insight into what she was thinking. Her total disinterest in pursuing that line of thought has me convinced it's a solid relationship. How about HK-Igor? I think this is also really stable. HK is an aggressive player and a fairly mercenary one at that. He knows Igor's safer with him than the rest, so why pretend Igor will do otherwise? And I think Igor likes having HK as a shield, someone to foist off the more dangerous or extreme stuff. I think he liked having Lucius as a shield too, and didn't expect Lucius to take the information he was given and immediately repay it by fucking Igor over. So that pair is unlikely to snap any time soon either. This means if the Lily-Barty relationship is strong this Side becomes very straightforward. So, that raises the question. How strong is it? It seems pretty good but I'm biased because I already like Lily so much. I think it's solid? But I don't know if it's solid enough. Conversely, if it's too solid, does it risk breaking one of the other relationships attached to it? Will Wood lose faith in Lily, or will the three of them lose faith in me? Or will they lose faith in Wood? On my end, the main worry is HK's relationship with Tonks. If Wood and Lily are diehard into Tonks, they might want to cut me over HK to keep her happy? Barty said that Lily's claiming Tonks fell off for her a bit, but I don't really buy it; she's too incentivized to say that to keep Barty and I happy to work without HK. If Digg dies or is just weaker with them than they let on (which I think is the case, based on my owl posts and the fact Digg has another ally they aren't working with at all but are almost certainly aware of) then this feels like it's not impossible, and if HK senses the opportunity there's no doubt he'll aim for it. Meanwhile, if Barty and I don't connect with Wood really efficiently, we run the risk of him thinking he's on the outside. I mean, he more or less is? Not more than I am, but its' true that if we lost four times, it'd be between me and him right now. Not a realistic concern in my opinion but I don't have a measure of what how Wood thinks yet and I'm loathe to use Lucius as an estimate; Lily and Barty are quite different, and Fleur/Lestrange and HK/Tonks also seem to be on different wavelengths as well. So we need Wood to think the order would be Kingsley, Igor & HK, and then me, then Barty. That's on Lily to manage though, with Barty as a secondary to make it clear to him I'm an outsider. Not much I can do about it, so I'm going to not worry about it. The alternative is to convince Wood of an order where at four we'd turn on Lily/Barty but that would involve so much set up and could so easily blow up in my face that I don't even want to consider it. Dung's death is unlikely to have implications, I think? Maybe Lily & Wood will want to take out either Igor or HK before Kingsley, but I don't think they'd try to overplay that much. Right now the play for them is to convince Barty and I they'll make better allies than HK and Igor, and I'm trying to help them with that as much as possible. That being said, long term the Daily Prophet needs to operate while considering the state of the other side, so I will do that now. So Lucius and Pyrites are going to work together. Digg and Moody are also apparently working together. Tonks and Fleur are as well. So it looks like Black's a bit of an odd one out? Kind of like Kingsley on this side. How do those sets interact? Well, the order folks could band together but everything I'm aware of suggests Tonks/Fleur and Digg/Moody have no crossover. Meanwhile, Digg will think he should work with Lucius, and Moody/Pyrites is a pair. So it feels very likely Tonks and Fleur wind up on the outs? This is very rough; if we lose both, of them will 100% know Kingsley's a safe option for switching. This means our comfy quartet becomes a five person thing, with Barty and I likely dropping to 4 and 5. Probably not a huge deal? If it's Fleur, it shouldn't be too bad to convince her to work with us for enough rounds for Barty and/or myself to organize a jump to the other side, or to even wait it out and get to merge. If it's Tonks though, this gets rough because odds are good she'll want to bring HK in, which potentially drops me to 6th in the set. The only way to prevent that is to make a bunch of assumptions about the shape of things on the other side of the wall, and then use Owl Post to convince Fleur/Tonks it's better to stay in their goddamn lanes. Except obviously they'll be getting letters from Lily and Wood too, so not much of a chance for real obfuscation without their cooperation. Given that I'd more or less be saying "Hey, I don't want your allies to come here because it makes things materially worse for me, I want you to let them die instead" I don't think I can count on either of their support. Yes and no. I need to consider it more, but at least right now I have no interest in using on anyone else. If I'm saving an enemy I frustrate my allies plans. If I save an ally I'm likely just walking into my own death. If I save a nobody I'm still effectively voicing that I think my current Side is unworkable and at present time it definitely does not feel that way? The best I could see to do with it is if the other side was voting a nobody one round, and would need me to tip the scales next round, that'd be okay? But unfortunately, at a Side count of seven where the tribes are composed of sets of pairs, coming in as a third wheel will never achieve anything. But I guess in a few days we'll see if I'm singing a different tune.
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Post by Corban Yaxley on May 10, 2022 13:21:45 GMT 10
Oh boy. I feel like I'm on the cusp of doing something bad here, but the devil is tempting me.
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Post by Lily Potter on Jun 1, 2022 23:36:16 GMT 10
Oh boy. I feel like I'm on the cusp of doing something bad here, but the devil is tempting me. what were you going to do??????
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Post by Corban Yaxley on Jun 2, 2022 0:02:18 GMT 10
Oh boy. I feel like I'm on the cusp of doing something bad here, but the devil is tempting me. what were you going to do?????? I don't remember xD I think I was going to try to convince the game to keep Kingsley and go for Igor instead? I knew I wanted to stick with our foursome but Kingsley also seemed solid, I felt like if I stuck my neck out for him he'd have been very loyal to me? But it seemed very greedy given I was mainly considering it to get a better connection with HK, who the rest of you wanted to kill anyways.
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