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Post by Peter Pettigrew on May 20, 2022 1:01:10 GMT 10
Well, will you look at that... you've survived Week Three! ![:dance](https://i.imgur.com/T8uX0Lu.gif) The Merge is well behind you, the Endgame is on the horizon, and as the number thin the stakes have never been higher... but please do take a moment to relish how far you've come, and relax some before diving back in - next week will see five eliminations in five nights, and end with our Final Two ![:o](http://images.proboards.com/new/shocked.gif) So as you regroup and as you look ahead, please do tell: 1. Break down that last round for us, please! How and why did the vote against Fleur come together, and were you expecting it to succeed? 2. Did you anticipate Diggle playing a Hidden Immunity Item? What impact will that have on the upcoming rounds? And are you planning around other potential Items? 3. What are the key alliances and allegiances on the (unnamed) Merge Side right now, and which do you expect to hold strong with just seven of you remaining? 4. What should your next move be? How will you be (or have you been) working over the weekend to make it happen? 5. With almost half the Wizengamot now appointed, how do you think they perceive your Game right now? How does that differ from the reality? 6. Rank the members of the Final Seven based on how likely they are to reach the Final Magical Council, then again based on how likely they are to win the Wizengamot's vote. Please do keep journaling as the next round unfolds, even after (or before, or in place of ![:P](http://images.proboards.com/new/tongue.png) ) answering these questions! We love tracking your thought process and have thoroughly enjoyed everything you've so shared with us so far, and with such diligence too ![:fan](https://i.imgur.com/074wyXd.gif)
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Post by Lily Potter on May 20, 2022 1:55:42 GMT 10
Sorry I'm exhausted so will try and keep this short
As you can see my confessions in Episode 11, I've been planning on turning on Fleur for a while. I think seeing how much Lucius struggled to even get a single vote on her (let alone the 5 that he needed) was an eye opener to how well connected she was. Indeed Oliver, Moody and Regulus all proposed F4 deals with me/barty/them and Fleur. She was in everyone's long term goals, and I just knew that there was no chance that we were in hers - it makes no sense for her to go to a F4 with a couple.
I had left open to Oliver the chance for a plurality vote to get rid of Fleur at F9 by taking advantage of a split between Lucius and Oliver, doing a 4-3-2. But Oliver refused to go along with it.
When we got to F8, I became aware that this would be the pivotal vote of the game, and would decide how the end game looked. There were 2 pairs and 4 singles left in the Merge. Fleur and Oliver wanted to break up the Diggles/Yaxley duo but I was well aware that if we lost either of them at F8, we would lose one of barty/myself at F7 to ensure a F6 of 6 singles. I proposed this to Yaxley and Diggs - even though I don't trust them, I trust that they'll make the logical move that is best for their own games
Still, Diggs was pretty keen on an easy vote on RAB because Moody was pushing for that....
This is when I saw my opportunity
I proposed that we pull of a 4-3-1. If we told Moody to vote RAB, this meant that the 4 singles weren't able to get 4 votes on any other target because RAB can't vote for himself. I suggested we use this opportunity to do a plurality vote of another single. Now, I didn't dare name Fleur lest the info get back to her. But I subtly pushed it by recognising that Diggs would never get rid of Moody (who he wants to bring to F5 to form a 3 and boot Barty/I - more on that later) highlighting the risk of Oliver playing his HII correctly and bouncing back on one of us (and at this point I had already told him that Oliver was throwing his name out - so by us, I meant him).
I was happy to leave it at that and pretend I was OK with an RAB vote, while working with Barty to continue our Inception of the 4-3-1 plan.
When Yaxley won immunity it became even easier - Fleur couldn't get any votes on Yaxley and Moody was insistent that he'd never vote out Diggs - meaning I could pretend that we were piling on RAB.
Ultimately our plan worked, Oliver even threw a vote on Diggs. We got Diggs to play his HII (which apparently only Moody knew about - although I suspect Yaxley did too) unnecessarily and flushing the only other HII we know in the game (although I assume someone has a merge HII if the pre-swap expires at F7, the post-swap expired at F6 and we were told F5 is the last time that they can be used). Maybe Diggs/Yaxley have it too and hence why they feel so comfortable
Anyways, the alliance SHOULD hold for this vote - you don't want 4 singles to target you at F6. So RAB should go home as long as Oliver doesn't figure it out and plays it on RAB instead of himself. Diggs doesn't think we have the numbers to split so I might try to convince Barty to vote Malfoy with me in case of an HII play on RAB.
But I'm well aware that a boot order of RAB > Oliver would leave Moody with Diggs/Yax. I'm not entirely sure if there's much else we can do now to stop that scenario because I can't see Oliver working with us again. Once bitten, twice shy! Or in Oliver's case, twice bitten, thrice murderous!
I just have to figure out what alternate plan we is - the only thing I can think of is switch at f5 to ensure we're in the same pair, and have one of us (let's be honest, Barty) win the F5 immunity challenge for both of us
But just have to take things 1 vote at a time I guess. It will be a LONG weekend
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Post by Lily Potter on May 20, 2022 2:04:06 GMT 10
Diggs and Yaxley obviously in the best position, will probably make the F3 with Moody. I see Yaxley as the best shot at winning at the Wizengamot because he's a more logical and eloquent speaker than the others, but maybe that means Diggs and Moody take each other to the F2
At this point, baring HII plays, the likely boot order is RAB > Wood > Me > Barty > Yaxley, with Diggs/Moody at the end
Which would be absolutely tragic for Barty to have his hot partner booted out at F5 and for him to go out right after
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Post by Lily Potter on May 21, 2022 11:26:40 GMT 10
So for the past week my pattern has been go to the conference at 8, get drunk until 1-2am, then answer missives until 4ish From Thursday I was feeling exhausted but I thought that was just the alcohol and lack of sleep catching up to me (the eurovision on Saturday/Sunday all nighter didn't help either)
But I started coughing a lung up yesterday and struggled to get out of bed... turns out CoVID finally claimed me as a victim after soooo many exposures that i've escaped.
I guess it's meant to mimic the starvation/exhaustion on actual survivor so it's only fitting into finale week of this ORG
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Post by Lily Potter on May 21, 2022 11:38:52 GMT 10
I'm still trying to work out how to optimise our path towards the end game I thought about revealing the pairs plan to RAB and convince him to join us, and use him at F5 to take out Diggs/Yaxley like they intend on using Moody This is a high risk strategy because it gives him a lot of room to betray us... and I don't know how little he trusts us already based off being left out on the vote. The only angle I could go with is self interest - he will go tomorrow if we split votes on oliver and RAB Otherwise if we stick with booting RAB and going to F5 with moody our options are 1/ hope we are in a pair together and one of us wins immunity (low probability) 2/ hope Yaxley betrays Diggs and votes moody out (Barty's plan) 3/ hope Moody betrays Diggs and votes Yaxley out (to form a new pair with Diggs) Find the merge HII which is likely playable to F5 (pre-swap expired f7, post-swap expired f6, Dolores Umbridge kindly clarified that HII in general expired at F5) - I know the password (based off the numbering of the owl clues) but can't figure out the bit.ly link We also have 2 flicks, but that's not much use this round as I'm alone
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Post by Lily Potter on May 22, 2022 12:32:24 GMT 10
aaaarrrgh slimy Peter and making me spend my CoVID isolation constantly checking into the board instead of just letting me binge netflix in bed
This extra HII has thrown a spanner in the works and has the potential to throw off our end game plans. I mean it could help us if Barty gets it because it'll give us another out at F5 but from a probabilistic viewpoint, there's a 5/7 chance that neither of us will get it
Someone switched Oliver and myself out, which was smart because you don't want Oliver immune because Moody wins a challenge and then he can use his HII on RAB
So all this means is we need to make sure Yaxley/RAB don't win immunity, and then we can vote him out
On the off chance they do win immunity though, I've gently suggested we could go for Diggs or Moody instead This doesn't make sense for Barty and I if RAB wasn't immune because it would make them turn on us at F6. But I figured if I suggested this plan BEFORE RAB won immunity, then he might be more likely to work with me rather than vote us out. Otherwise it looks like we were always going to vote him out and am only coming to him now that he has immunity
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Post by Lily Potter on May 22, 2022 16:11:37 GMT 10
Sighs so it turns out we could have had the HII if barty shared his "activation spell" with me... except he misread it and didn't share it with me...
this definitely complicates the vote tonight...
kinda serves me right given i'm the one who is awful at reading things properly
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Post by Lily Potter on May 22, 2022 17:00:00 GMT 10
Oh dear merlin Barty somehow got it
I was sure that we had been late by 2 hours by the time he gave me the spell
now we just have to survive until F5 and we'll be in a decent position to both be immune then
there's an 80% chance that someone in either of the two immunity pairs will win it, and 64% chance that neither of us are the lone pair - which is about 50% chance that one of us wins immunity via the paired immunity twist (provided we arent both on the same pair but if so we can either flick or hope someone switches us - it's not in diggs/yaxley/moody's interest to allow us to be both immune via a challenge)
which means there's a decent chance one of us will win paired immunity and barty can use his HII on the non immune one
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Post by Lily Potter on May 22, 2022 21:21:18 GMT 10
oh dear, oliver/RAB are definitely sending their 2 votes on barty or myself tonight
they're hoping that in a 2-2 revote diggs chooses to save moody
i really wish yaxley hadn't tried so hard to win immunity
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Post by Lily Potter on May 22, 2022 21:26:36 GMT 10
I really hope they target me and not barty
if i go, they target diggs next, and then barty's HII keeps him safe at f5
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Post by Lily Potter on May 22, 2022 21:42:55 GMT 10
oh boy, if barty/i stick on moody, we are literally hoping yaxley prevoted moody in his list somewhere
otherwise barty/i draw rocks
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