Yeah, my dumb luck on last challenge and having an IRL time constraint that meant I had to get it done in ten minutes paid off!
All jokes aside, it is really cool to have survived 8th at least once! Especially because until I won immunity last round, it was really beginning to feel like I was going to get 8th again. The way things went down with the Lucius Vs. Wood stuff put me in a bad light on my sincerity of killing Lucius to Fleur, which I assumed meant she'd be going for me ASAP? And then other folks mentioning my name was going around... well, I was absolutely assuming the worst? I mean, I'd have been content with a third 8th place but I'm also happy I get to keep going!
Hmm, I have mixed feelings on this? I kind of liked having Fleur around, both as someone fun to talk to and as someone that I felt confident I could rally most of the game against near the end as a super jury threat. I know logically that her going here is probably good for me? Apparently she was going for me anyways. and as I mentioned, the Lucius boot made me look so suspicious I can't even blame her. But I really don't like how it happened; I almost wonder if I should have just logged off immediately when I read the message and let them go for 3-3-2 instead? The problems are from a strategic perspective, Moody is much less likely to trust any of us, and I expect Lily to point that out and therefor want to hit Moody very soon. But (assuming we stick to the four of us) we do all kind of need to think about who will benefit us to keep for a tie-breaker in F5? Either that or they break off here, rallying Wood/Black/Moody right now. I'd hoped that Moody's faith in Diggle would be useful to me at F5 but now I'm unsure how shaken that faith is, on top of the rest of them suddenly putting Moody at an awkward distance?
I do think if we'd directly targeted Fleur it would have gone terribly. I wrote last time I have no idea why Barty was so persistent on Fleur because it was the most dangerous play on a round that I perceived our situation as the most precarious? But keeping it 100% between the four of us meant we just needed to make sure the four singles didn't vote together. I was worried Digg would report back to Moody or Fleur, so Barty waiting until Moody was offline was clever if his biggest goal was killing Fleur, to be sure, as it was the largest risk to his plan. So it was cleverly done but makes the four of us look insanely shady; I expect any player outside of that set to begin working really hard to be the one the four of us keep until F5? Which makes Wood straight-up ignoring me very dangerous; if he's bothering to fight with Barty he's at least got a functional dialogue with him.
I did not. I was mildly aware there were decent odds if the Dept. one was found, either he or Moody had it? So I'm not shocked, per se. I don't blame him for keeping it super secret but I wonder how Lily and Barty will feel, privately? I'm betting Barty at least will start feeling very squirrely about Diggle. Which is fine, because I do need them to take a shot at each other without my knowing some point soon. Probably F6? That way the three of us are still solid at F5. That means Lily/Barty would need to sync up with one of Black, Moody, or Wood. Wood strikes me as the most likely? Moody won't go for it and who knows about Black. That means in theory they'll want either Moody or Black out this round? But also they probably want those two anyways no matter what they're planning, so who knows.
The question about Wood having an immunity item is interesting. Lucius claimed on the round he died that Wood transferred it to him to hold for the round, but that he wouldn't use it? But then in the council he bluffed that he would use it. Then on his vote, he claims Wood had it, instead. This is unbelievably confusing behaviour, the ORG equivalent of a Drunken Fist Monk? So either the Idol is dead because Lucius has it, or Wood has it, or there's some really fuckin' strange chain of image copying going on here. I'm not convinced Lucius actually had it? I don't know why Wood would go from being at Lucius's throat to being willing to lend him an Idol on a round where both of them were up against the wall.
Right now it seems the 'pairs' alliance of myself, Barty, Lily and Diggle is extremely strong? At F7, we should be able to cruise through this round and (maybe?) next round before imploding. But I don't see how we get through F5 without at least one major betrayal.
More importantly in my eyes, is the list of tight duos, relationships that I don't believe ever get broken without outside interference?
Lily/Barty
Barty/Yaxley
Yaxley/Digg
Digg/Moody
I want to put Lily/Yaxley in this list and I suspect Lily/Diggle might belong here too, but I think it's better for now if I assume only the relationships that I'm 100% sure of. These are where I expect loyalties to remain, to be broken up by outsiders or forced apart by the game. (For example, if final three was Digg, Barty, and I, I don't even know what I'd do there? The gamer in me wants to compete as hard as possible and then do a big pros/cons list do sort out who I think I have a better chance of beating but the idea of voting for either of them is so unpleasant I'd rather just not do the final challenge and let them decide. But then not doing the final challenge in a game about fun and different challenge ideas also seems incredibly lame, so...)
Interestingly, I don't think Black has anything super solid? I would have wondered about Moody but Moody voted for him. Wood's an enigma; he was on the outs with everyone but that was three days ago, plenty of time for him to have patched up his key relationships, if he put the right kind of effort in. Hmm.
I think if the four of us break at F7 we all get devoured? So the play in my eyes is to go for Wood or Black. I don't know if Diggle would willingly go for Moody? Wood might have immunity in an item, so if Black gets immunity this gets incredibly messy. Looking at the pairs, it might actually get worse? Right now if Moody/Wood wins immunity the Wood could play his idol on Black. Gets Black as a loyal ally forever and we're forced to eat each other. Yikes. Well, good thing I messed up using my Switch charm last round because I absolutely want to use it here instead.
This is where I really begin to feel the strain of my inexperience. Up until now, I've had at least two games of my own learning and practical experience to lean on + what I've gleaned from spectating SBOmega's Smash game & Ghibli 1, +reading other old games. But I've never made it to the end to actually write a Jury speech, and if I'm honest I usually tap out by the end of reading other games? Like, my typical read is "Host blogs > Cast Reveal > Confessionals of specific players who I was interested in seeing the opinions of/Private duo boards if the game has that dynamic. I think it's more interesting to see how folks thought at every step then it is how they justify if they should win to each other. Generally speaking I understand logistically why every game ends in Wizard-Court? Because a crux of well-designed ORGs is that the players themselves always need to decide who to eliminate or support every round. While I fully believe it's possible to build one where the end isn't that simple, right now it's clear there are very few folks who really love the Jury speech aspect? It seems to be the quietest or least-liked part of many of the games I've seen. I mentioned my perspective on this, fresh off the FEH FTC, in Day 0? Quoting myself here,
So all this to say, I'm not used to thinking about the jury in concrete terms at all. Asbel was focused on surviving in the early merge and then lost all spirit pointlessly. Henry was focused on surviving and also having fun trying to mess around with the weirder formats. In both cases, I didn't really seriously think about or discuss the jury? And in Henry's case, that was a problem because apparently everyone thought he was too strong to be allowed to make it Jury. (Not trying to be arrogant; I literally asked about why no one had offered an F3 to me in the jury house when it was suddenly revealed everyone else had at least one or two, and was told by my closest allies I was too good to get to the end.) It's flattering, but also intensely unhelpful in thinking about Juries in general? All I can think of is how every game I've read, it feels like most of the folks still in the game have wildly different opinions on who's scary vs. the jury.
So how do HK, Tonks, Lucius, and Fleur see my game? I have no clue. I'd like to think HK at least thinks alright of me, given he sent me that wand? I don't know about Tonks or Fleur; I'm assuming they'll vote for someone they played most of the game with. Lucius, who knows? On one hand, he seemed like he was really close to me most of the game. On the other hand, he did lie to me at least once in the last round, and I was the most two-faced bastard I'd ever been that round as well. And given how much shit-talking I did about him with Tonks and Fleur, I feel like if they get to talking about the game, that might come up and bury my chances? Ah well, who knows. Maybe it'll be the opposite; they could just as well be trying to figure out where Wood stood with people, or Diggle, or Black? I feel like Lily and Diggle are the two most likely to get votes from Tonks/Fleur and Barty is more likely to get votes from Lucius than I am? At any rate; they have the necessary folks between them to completely understand my game if they communicate thoroughly and honestly, so it will depend on how much they appreciate that.
First, how likely they are to reach the end?
1. Barty
2. Diggle
3. Lily
4. Wood
5. Yaxley
6. Moody
7. Black
The logic here is pretty straightforward. I'm assuming one of Black or Moody goes at F7? But then I'm assuming whichever of those two + Wood are alive will break the current 4 at F6. I think it's likely it breaks in a way that gets me killed; Wood seems to be closer to Lily/Barty now, and if Moody's around, he wouldn't mind getting Digg all to himself. I feel like I've been too active, sent too many novels. I tried early on to be more short-spoken but as I've been tired and worn-down, I've edited and paired down my posts less and less. So I think people might think I'm a threat? Hopefully not, but I could see it. Either way, I think at F5 if I'm not dead Moody/Black is so it becomes Barty/Lily vs. the remainder. I'd been thinking people would view Lily as more dangerous than Barty (she's very well spoken, and has never been targeting by literally anyone) so I suspect she dies either there or at F4? I think at F4 it probably winds up being Digg, Barty, 1-2 of [Wood/Black/Moody] and 0-1 of [Lily/Yaxley]. From here it's hard to say? It depends on how the rounds before it break down. If Wood's still alive, odds are good he's someone everyone aims for bringing to the end, given his extremely rocky relationship with Lucius, Fleur, and maybe(?) the rest of us? Black, who knows. I think if I'm alive, Digg and Barty work with me to F3? If Lily is alive, I assume her and Barty persuade one of whoever's left. Either way I think Barty gets to at least F3 and Digg's second most likely. Whichever of those two make it, I think they get F2. If Lily or I am there we probably need to win immunity.
How likely are they to win Wizengamot's vote? I really feel ill-equipped to speculate on this, but I'll throw something down.
1. Lily
2. Yaxley
3. Barty
4. Diggle
5. Moody
6. Wood
7. Black
I feel like Lily, if she gets to the end, will revive herself and give an incredible speech. She's also had a decent amount of ups and downs, and outside of getting baited into posting in the wrong chat by bad naming, doesn't have anything I feel could be pointed to as a mistake? Also I think if she's at the end, she's managed to take out some combination of Barty, Digg and myself. I think most of us would vote for her over other folks unless something dramatic happens. If she's up there with me or Barty I think she takes the order votes, which is the majority in that case? If she's up there with Digg or Moody I think she takes the majority of the pairs votes. If she's up there with Black or Wood, I think she takes most of the votes altogether.
Right now I feel okay about myself. I don't know if I'd be any good at writing a Jury speech? But setting that aside, I think if I get to the end my chances are decent with most folks. I think I have an unfavourable matchup against Lily for sure. Barty's harder to say, although it's worth noting a lot of folks seem more interested in hitting me than him? So he's probably more well-liked. But at the same time, I think I'll be able to argue my points a bit more. We'd presumably each get our partner's vote? But I think, I'd get HK and Moody, whereas he'd get Black. For other folks, I have no idea where Lucius, Tonks, Fleur or Wood might lean. But I think I could argue with Lucius, unless he hates me for aiming to kill him. Which, lol fair enough. I dunno. Honestly thinking I'd beat Barty is arrogance and I can't explain it. Probably just the Dunning-Krueger effect and I'd get destroyed.
If I was against Digg, I think I get all of the Death Eater votes but I don't know if he gets all of the Order votes? I think he'd get Moody and Fleur, and maybe Tonks? I don't know if he gets Wood or Lily though. Against Moody I think I get most of the DE votes and most of the pair votes. Similarly with Wood or Black.
Barty vs. Diggle is a weird one? Barty gets all DE votes + Lily at minimum. Digg gets Fleur/Tonks/Moody at minimum. Do I vote for Digg? Does Wood? I don't know. I think Barty's slightly favoured.
Fundamentally the bottom three all suffer from being on the periphery most of the game; that can be intentional but it's not something I'd vote for. I doubt Lucius or HK will vote for it either, so all of them have an uphill battle out of the gate. I think Moody at least locks Digg's vote and maybe Fleur? I have no idea about Wood or Black.
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So that's all the questions! Jeez, you folks really decided to demand a lot here, eh? I guess it's the last break before the end, so for a lot of folks it might be their last chance to actually answer some of these questions!
Also, I wondered for a long time if these questions were more or less consistent across each player? I'm guessing some of these are, but that last line gives away that at least some of these are unique to me, I'm assuming not everyone is as neurotically verbose as I am
Okay now time for the general thoughts for myself, to get properly organized.
So this pairs foursome; it needs to last this round, or we're functionally back to a 3v3? In theory the person who lost their pair-mate could shift to the single side, but I do think that's pretty unlikely. Right now Black/Moody/Wood have very little in common cause, to my knowledge. Black and Moody might rely on their Order days but that cuts out Wood pretty badly? And I believe Moody when he says he's getting nothing from Black, too. So the only realistic ways this foursome breaks is 1) there are no legal targets on the single-side, 2) one of the pair-mates goes AWOL, or 3) Wood's idol causes shenanigans. How likely is either of these cases?
1 (No legal targets): Right now it's distressingly possible if Wood has the idol, but I believe I can fix that shortly. As long as Wood/Black/Moody are all in separate pairs we can get an available target with guaranteed success; Wood could idol and one of them could get immunity but the other is vulnerable. Hopefully I can persuade Barty to swap them in a reasonably useful way.
2 (Pair-mate goes AWOL): The main question is; why would this happen? The answer is basically; if you think you're going to be in trouble at F5 with this set of four + another player, you probably want to shake things up before you get there. Do any of us think that? Right now I could see Lily or Digg thinking it, tbh. Barty, Diggle and I had that 3-person chat to get through the double boot, after all; if Lily learned about that we'd be in a reasonable amount of trouble. Meanwhile, Digg wasn't there for the Daily Prophet days. They're also the two with the most means to actually flip something here? The Diggle-Moody relationship seems iron-clad. Lily was very close with Wood for a long time; it's not impossible they mend that bridge and she uses it to take a shot at one of us. I think Barty and I are the two least-likely to go for this because we already shot the guy who we'd rely on to flip for us at 5, Oops. If this is the case, do I need to do something about this? I do not think Diggle would be willing to stab me in the back that brutally. I think it's more likely he goes for Barty or Lily. If that happens I have a lot of options; either stick with whoever he stabs + maybe Wood or Black depending, and aim for Moody? Or stick with Moody/Diggle and rope in literally anyone else to take out someone else. If Lily wants to kill one of us, I'd probably be a solid target for her. She'd need to convince Moody, Black AND Wood to all go for it though. Could she? I have no idea. I have no indication she's working with Moody much, nor Black. And Wood's an enigma. Hmm, this is distressingly logical. I don't think she'd willingly hit Barty and I don't think she could persuade Moody to go for Digg. The main reason this might not happen is because Lily seems kind of too busy to think of it? Well, and she might not want to risk Barty and Diggle's wrath. If she does hit me, I don't think Barty or Diggle stand for it, and if they stick together they probably get Moody too. Do Wood + Lily + Black survive, or do one of them fold? I don't think she'd gamble on that possibility if she didn't feel she had to. This seems pretty unlikely.
3 (Idol shenanigans): So IF Wood has the idol, the worst case scenario is him knowing who to play it on, and then playing it on them to negate all of our votes for that person. This is only counter-able if he has an accurate guess of who we hit AND can get the rest of the game to over-run our votes. So if he can persuade Black and Moody to vote together, he could hit one of us so long as he knew who we were voting for. Hilariously, because Digg's loyal to Moody, they are always going to know who we're voting for. So that's just impossible to work around. If Moody doesn't ditch, the five of us can split on Black and Wood? But if Black wins immunity, that's a mess.
Hmm, no easy way out of here. Having potentially three of seven folks be immune in a round is really interesting, but also brutal.
Ugh. With no way to really nail down a precise outcome I feel like speculating too far in the future is a bad idea? Barty's already (as I wrote this!) saying he thinks at 5 he, Lily and I all work together to ditch Digg. That seems... dubious. I feel like in that case I'm relying on Lily to lose that challenge, because there's no way she takes me over Barty. And I don't know if Barty takes me either.
If he's already talking about that I need to be very careful about the rest of the cast for now. Hmm. I have a bad feeling about this.