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Post by Peter Pettigrew on May 22, 2022 23:12:08 GMT 10
And then there were six! Episode 14 is actually an exciting Double Episode, so we'll be using this thread until the Finale begins on Tuesday night. Which is sooo close... 1. Were you intending for Moody to leave last round? How did it come about? 2. How does losing him impact your plans for the Endgame ahead? Are the pairs more likely to break apart now, or less? 3. If you didn't need to factor in Immunity wins, Pairs and potential Items, who would you like to see leave at Final Six and Five? 4. With those factors in play, what are your plans and backup plans for this round? How likely are they to coincide with the plans being made by the other players?
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Post by Lily Potter on May 23, 2022 12:49:11 GMT 10
I wasn't intending for Moody to go last round but I had entertained the idea of it happening before realising it would ruin the pairs alliance. But I had anticipated that RAB could be immune via a Yax challenge win (becoming the challenge slut of the season with 3 consecutive wins) and had tried to get him to entertain the idea of voting out Moody.
Of course, as soon as the results came out, Oliver and RAB wanted to vote out Diggs and not entertain any other option. I know they both knew they were immune so figured they might as well take the shot now but 1) they're on the bottom and getting pissed off when you don't get to call the shots is poor form and 2) THEY DIDN'T EVEN VOTE TOGETHER. I know Minister Peter (very understandably) mixed up the votes but it would have been hilariously sad if it became a 2-1-1 vote and they did all of that for no result.
We always had a split vote plan to flush Oliver's idol and then boot RAB out. Obviously that shifted to Moody once RAB was immune. However, what wasn't clear because Yax (who had prevoted Oliver) wasn't online was if he had left a ranked list with Moody as revote target.
That left us Barty and I with a very nerve wracking 10 minutes because we had to trust that Yaxley had left a list, otherwise Moody and Diggs would become immune and we'd go to Potions. Ultimately I made the (very public) call, so I would have felt devastated if it backfired and Barty went home. I offered to drink both potions but that wasn't kosher with the Ministry.
And then even though it turns out that drama wasn't even supposed to happen, it probably helped Barty and I in the long term because it was a very public demonstration of trust in the pairs alliance.
This led to some outpouring of feels in the TAPP (The Almighty Power Pairs) chat - don't blame me, I come up with cooler alliance names, where they all promised that we'd be BFFs together. Maybe I'm a heartless bitch gamebot and I've always seen this arrangement as a MAD (mutually assured destruction) alliance of convenience. The only person in this game that I actually care about is Barty and I would have zero hesitation in voting any of them out (Fleur was my toughest and even then I knew we had to make the move).
BUT I hope I can capitalise on this to keep them focussed on us. I'm still wary that they could betray us, but if they send those speeches and betray us than they are burning my jury vote and I'll even vote for Wood before them. I've always held the position that there is such thing as a bitter jury but the players have to play with the jury they have and it's their responsibility for not making jurors bitter towards them (again, I haven't seen most seasons including Kaoh Rong so don't come @ me Conner). But those speeches were unnecessary if they plan on voting us out, and would lose my juror vote if it was gameplay.
The speeches also highlight that Yaxley would probably beat us all at the Wizengamot. And that's something I pointed out to Barty and could point out to Diggs at F4 if he doesn't go on an immunity streak.
Now, there is a decent chance that both Barty and I become immune at F5 with paired immunities and the merge HII - so.... we could take out Yaxley is he's not immune ...
This would give us a pair at the F4 and we could hope the the 2 singles throw each other under the bus to get to F3 and a shot at FIC. However, it might then burn jury votes from Diggs and Yaxley...
I've already got Oliver, Fleur and Tonks likely to be bitter towards me, probably HK too. If the Wizengamot is only 9 people, I can't really afford to lose any more juror votes. BUT I have to balance that with trying to get Barty to the end - there's no point keeping jurors on side if it means we go out at F4 and F3 respectively (cos I definitely don't back myself to win a fire making challenge).
Anyways, so the most likely plan for tonight is we vote out RAB/Oliver (whoever isn't immune) and then the other at F5. Yaxley tried to give an out for a F5 betrayal by saying that person has a 2/5 chance of being immune but I pointed out that if we all trust each other, that person's pair could just not try to win immunity and it's only a 1/4 shot - meaning we have a 75% chance of getting to F4 as a foursome. I emphasised in the TAPP chat that in the history of BvW, no pair has ever gotten to F4 together, let alone two pairs, so that would be pretty cool even if Barty and I fall shortly after.
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Post by Lily Potter on May 23, 2022 12:54:35 GMT 10
Oh turns out Oliver was the Barty vote
I still can't believe that the TAPP 4 have managed to work together throughout the merge, and Oliver and RAB couldn't even work together for one round to even vote for the same person despite both being immune
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Post by Lily Potter on May 23, 2022 14:52:37 GMT 10
Apparently everyone thinks Barty is responsible for the Fleur vote and Oliver accused me of being his dumb minion being dragged along
Which is perfect because around F6 is when I start to get into danger. Since I'm awful at challenges, I need to rely on being taken to FTC by whoever wins FIC, and it they think I'm a goat who has been manipulated by Barty then this is more likely to happen
It also means that if Barty is the one at FTC and I'm on the Wizengamot, I can give more credence to that narrative and help him pick up more juror votes for his strategic game (unfortunately other than Malfoy and myself, I'm not sure if he'll pick up any other popularity votes so need to sway 3 jurors)
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Post by Lily Potter on May 23, 2022 14:54:43 GMT 10
Oh he'd also get Yaxley's vote if yaxley wasn't next to him
As another sign of how unaware Oliver is, he thinks Yaxley is a "weaker player" which is funny because I think Yaxley is in the prime position to win this ORG. If Barty/I can't win, I'd be advocating for Yax to win
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Post by Lily Potter on May 23, 2022 22:23:17 GMT 10
WOW, that was the first straight forward vote since Wizengamot opened! So unlike my previous F6 votes.
It was kinda bittersweet too, cos even though his erratic gameplay has been a thorn in my side and I've been bitching about him ever since, he's always been a good lad and he's been with me the entire game. And I completely respect the hustle right until the end, no matter how farfetched the plan.
It's just a shame that him blabbing to HK and my blunder caused Lucius to lose his shit and then after that, our paths became untenable and we couldn't be 3 pairs anymore.
Reflecting back, that's the last of my OG alliance gone - Tonks, Fleur, now Wood. I guess I truly am Sam and Oliver was my Jesse.
The last few votes, I think the thing that's hurt Oliver the most is that he thinks I trust Diggs more than I trust him. I guess that's the beauty of the PBvO format. If I was playing a singles game I would have gone for Diggs at F9 with Fleur and Oliver but playing with Barty means playing with Yaxley and playing with Yaxley means playing with Diggs.
And placing our trust in that 4 has gotten both Barty and I to the F5. And we are SOOOOO close to getting us both safely into F4.
We've both been drawn together, which means both of us will play FLICK to maximise our chance that one of us will win immunity.
The only thing that can screw this up is if the FLICK interacts with SWITCH in a really unlucky way
Because Diggs is going to SWITCH Regulus with Yaxley. This will leave the pairs as: 1/ Me/Barty 2/ Diggs/Yax 3/ RAB
But if I flick Barty away, I could get Diggs (good result because Barty will with Yax), Yax (good result because I will be with Yax), or RAB (bad result because it's likely neither of us will be immune).
So really, unless RAB wins immunity (let's just say 1/5 shot), then we have a 2/3 chance of becoming both immune via FLICK due to paired immunity and HII
Just gotta hope Lady Luck saves us
Of course, the big risk is when Yax/Diggs realise what we've done and get suspicious - I guess we can just say we wanted to maximise the chance of one from each pair being immune.
But that's a problem for tomorrow Lily!
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Post by Lily Potter on May 23, 2022 23:00:29 GMT 10
Reflecting back, we HAVE to use Flick. Because if Diggs/Yaxley win immunity together, they have nothing to fear anymore. There's really no reason for them to not join with RAB and take us out, ensuring that they're the only couple left in the game at F4.
4/5 (RAB doesn't win immunity) x 2/3 (Flick works in our favour) = 53.3%
It's only slightly better than a flip of a coin but I feel it's a lot better than trusting Diggs/Yax to not screw us over.
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Post by Peter Pettigrew on May 23, 2022 23:11:50 GMT 10
Top five baby! 5. It's been a while since you've seen a unanimous vote. Was this last round truly as simple as the numbers make it look? Or was Wood always bound to be leaving there? 6. It's the last round for Immunity Pairs, Switch/Flick Charms and Hidden Immunity Items. Are you planning anything around these? What do you think the other players are planning or hoping for? 7. Something a bit more open-ended than usual: you've only got three more votes between now and Final Magical Council! What are your options for navigating the Endgame, which path do you think is the best one for you, and what are you doing to help it become the direction the rest of the Game ends up taking? And you get a tag too because we need you to discuss some logistics with you Lily Potter. The plan for the next few days is: - Times as usual for Tuesday and Wednesday night. - The Survivor 42 finale airs in Australia from 7:30-10:30pm Thursday. Right now we have two options for the Final Three Magical Council: it can either begin at 7:00pm or 10:30pm. Please let us know ASAP if you cannot do either of these times. - The Final Magical Council will begin on Sunday night (29 May) and end on Monday night (30 May), followed by the Winner and Cast Reveal. Times for this are flexible, and even though it's non-live we'd like the Finalists to at least be online during the Winner Reveal on Monday. Please let us know whether have particular times which will work better or worse for you on these days, or whether you're entirely flexible.
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Post by Lily Potter on May 23, 2022 23:14:15 GMT 10
(Because I've basically answered all those questions above)
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Post by Lily Potter on May 23, 2022 23:17:20 GMT 10
In regards to timing, I can't make 7pm so would prefer 1030pm (but I might not even survive until F3, and even if I do, I won't be winning FIC since you're aware of my challenge skills) so it's probably not even that relevant if I'm there or not
Sunday night I'll be busy with dinner but can post Wizengamot stuff (either as a contestant or juror) early if that helps Monday night I've signed up to do a trivia thing (which means no phones) so won't be online until quite late
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Post by Lily Potter on May 24, 2022 21:50:21 GMT 10
And that council ladies and gentlmen, is what happens when someone has too much power at one tribal - they overplay and make bad moves
Because Barty won individual immunity and could bequeath the paired immunity AND still have a HII burning in his pocket, he came up with this awful plan where
Diggs votes RAB RAB and I vote Yax Yax and he vote Diggs
He plays the HII on Yax cancelling out the 2 votes on him and sending Diggs home 2-1
Except Yax played him for a fool and RAB would have gone home if I hadn't flipped my vote and RAB's vote onto Diggs at literally the last minute (9:14) to make it a 3-2
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