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Post by Peter Pettigrew on May 23, 2022 10:33:05 GMT 10
Foreboding subtitle, I know. But either way this is a double episode and we'll be done with the Immunity Pairs (at least ) by the end of it. Not much to report from the PMs overnight, mostly just assurances from anyone in a pair to everyone else in a pair that everyone in a pair will be the F4... even while they all doubt that in their confessionals. But also they want to finally name the Merge Side after their alliance once everyone else is gone Regulus is beside himself but still has grand designs, and Wood is reeling from everything yet again. Should be one of the latter two leaving here, whichever one isn't Immune. But expecting things to remain simple has never worked before, so we'll see. Either way F5 should be explosive.
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Post by Peter Pettigrew on May 24, 2022 2:37:47 GMT 10
So this did indeed turn out to be the first straightforward round since probably the second Pyrites vote at the Daily Prophet. Not only were the pairs dead-set on sticking together (neither Wood nor Regulus being reliable fifth-wheel supporters for either pair any longer), but they also far preferred to see Wood exit before Regulus (for being significantly less predictable) and helped achieve this by Lily not even playing the Challenge, for she was paired with Wood - though I don't think she's told this to anyone but Crouch. Regulus wasn't fully confident he'd be spared over Wood but thankfully for him Yaxley gained him Immunity once again and that was no longer a problem. Wood was certain he'd be going finally, but at the last his attitude shifted from the sullen defeatism of the last few days (I believe he literally asked to be put out of his misery at one point ) and embraced the fun of the scramble when his back was so obviously against the wall that nothing he tried could possibly make things worse. He signaled the return of his good humour by creating a new six-way group PM, asking the others to participate in his ritual to resurrect Lucius, that he may be voted out again tonight instead of Wood (because obviously the most fitting way to invoke the ghost of Lucius is to start an unnecessarily large group chat ). And then he focused on Lily, asking her to join an insane (that's a self-description) plan to pull all the votes onto Lily and Wood, for a tie and a deadlock that would end in Diggle/Yaxley drinking Potions. This was obviously riddled with holes which Lily was all to happy to point out with great amusement to both Wood and to the pairs groups chat - Yaxley was Immune, Diggle would need to not flip his vote after the first tie, the initial step of asking for votes was almost as absurd... but Wood was just trying to propose a way for them to work together without Lily having to get blood on her hands. Anyhow, that didn't happen and the votes came in as unanimous and without a last-minute stress-fest for the first time since the Merge. Of course, the calm only makes the dread for the impending storm all the greater... and I for one am excited that we're now guaranteed to see a PBvO pair in the Final Four. Both because of the dynamic that will create, and because the Tiebreaker Duel is rather fun/tense/amusing/cruel.
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Post by Peter Pettigrew on May 24, 2022 3:06:20 GMT 10
Some Switch/Flick analysis seeing as it's their last time to shine. Current pairs are: Lily/Crouch and Diggle/Regulus, with Yaxley unpaired.
Diggle has tried to Switch Yaxley and Regulus, even though that's not actually allowed (you can't Switch away your current partner). But the intent was to increase the odds that Regulus won't become Immune - though the risk is substantial because right now Diggle could throw the Challenge to leave Regulus' fate in the hands of his own Challenge performance only, and if Regulus were to win then Diggle would receive the other Immunity rather than whomever Regulus feels like choosing come the deadline. This would however make it less likely that Regulus could pull off a Switch of his own, though to what end he'd do that I'm not sure - Regulus' best bet here (and he's already done this) is to Flick away his current partner (Diggle) in the hope of either getting paired up with Yaxley (who seems most likely to win just based on his streak so far) or with Crouch (who is more likely than Diggle to be too paranoid to throw the Challenge).
Anyhow, Diggle is the only who can Switch right now (Regulus having submitted a Flick and the others in the pairs having Switched previously), but the only Switch he can make is Yaxley for one of Lily/Crouch. And he's far better off keeping Yaxley unpaired so that if Yaxley does indeed win, he can choose to protect Diggle. The risk there is that a Diggle win would not similarly protect Yaxley, but Regulus instead which would then make Regulus the unpredictable swing vote between the pairs.
Crouch and Lily have both Flicked and did so almost immediately. Because of Crouch's Item, all they need to do to guarantee passage to F4 (and at least a tiebreaker Duel) is to get one of them into the pair that wins Immunity and then they can play their item on the other. So unlike Yaxley/Diggle who would love to win together, them being paired right now is actually their worst case scenario (also, neither fancies their chances to win at anything). There will be fallout when they're discovered to have Flicked by Diggle/Yaxley who ought to at that point finally deduce where the Item is - but if all goes well it won't much matter.
What Crouch/Lily haven't considered is the possibility that one of them gets Flicked into the unpaired position, and of course now that Regulus has cast Flick there's a chance that his gets selected to be successful and he draws Yaxley as his new partner, leaving the Crouch/Lily pair untouched. So their actual probability of both being safe here - while still significant - is lower than the 80% they're excitedly screaming back and forth (virtually). And with Diggle/Yaxley's plan A falling through, Yaxley could make a Switch involving one of Crouch/Lily only for Regulus' Flick to send them back, or (and this is perhaps their best play) Diggle could Flick away Regulus in the hope that he draws Diggle and effect the Switch he just tried to make illegally.
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Post by Peter Pettigrew on May 24, 2022 9:10:44 GMT 10
Well Lily/Crouch's gambit seems to have worked... kind of. Crouch on his own leaves them a 40% chance that the pair neither are in will win (falsely assuming everyone has an equal shot to win the Challenge). Had Regulus' Flick been successful, he'd have switched Diggle and Yaxley, leaving Crouch/Lily paired together. Diggle's planned (illegal) Switch would have given Crouch/Lily exactly what they want, each ending up in a separate Immunity Pair so he's kind of fortunate that wasn't allowed.
Obviously how this plays out depends on who wins the Challenge (though it kind of baffles me that Crouch played it already without waiting to see who he was paired up with) but the odds are in Crouch/Lily's favour. The planning too, because they've been discussing scenarios for this for days whereas Diggle/Yaxley have barely discussed it at all. Generally Crouch/Lily are far more actively PMing and far more open, and their constant coordination has been the driving force for much of this Merge. Diggle/Yaxley prefer longer PMs with more time between, and have spent more time since the ID reveal talking about themselves than they have the game moves in their one-on-ones; most of their strategy is in their chats with Lily and Crouch or all four of them, and it's left them behind by a fair way in exploring/exploiting these twists, not just the Charms today but also the Item-finding, which Diggle shared first with Moody rather than Yaxley. And neither has at all discussed where the Item might be - both potentially suspect that the other is keeping it secret (again) - so they will be completely blindsided if/when Crouch pulls it out tonight, unless they deduce it from the Flick - too late to do anything about it except have Yaxley throw the Challenge and hope Diggle or Regulus beats both of Lily/Crouch at it.
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Post by Peter Pettigrew on May 24, 2022 19:49:22 GMT 10
zesty — Today at 10:54 AM On another note, do you think crouch and lily should take a shot at Diggle/yax here?
SBOmega — Today at 10:54 AM Probably given their challenge records
JustJaking — Today at 10:54 AM Definitely
zesty — Today at 10:54 AM I think it makes a lot more sense for them Yeah
JustJaking — Today at 10:55 AM Either way they're likely in a tiebreaker at F4, with the other two players picking which of them competes
zesty — Today at 10:55 AM And like sure regulus could tie the vote at 4 as well, but it’s not a guarantee
JustJaking — Today at 10:55 AM Two singles gives them a narrow chance to maybe get through without one, and an easier beat for both immunity and the tiebreaker Plus Regulus is an easier FTC beat
zesty — Today at 10:56 AM Like they if they made a f3 deal with regulus, and told him that they’d take him to f2, he might be true to that?
JustJaking — Today at 10:57 AM They've already tried over and over with him, and everyone involved knows their deals are bullshit lol
zesty — Today at 10:57 AM Like they have done so much good work to give themselves the advantage at this moment, but it kinda evaporates at f4, and then the advantage goes to the other two with their challenge skills (tho the last 2 challenges could be anyone’s game) Will c+p for blogs btw dw Lol fair. Regulus does want lily out But still, with regulus in the mix there is just more wiggle room, versus like a confirmed 2-2 split with the other 2 Oh lily changed her prevote 😮 This really is a great F5. I think any of them could win under the right circumstances and I’d be happy to see any of those circumstances shake out
SBOmega — Today at 11:04 AM Lily will cop it for that after being so insistent on F4 Not sure she can afford to burn more jurors
zesty — Today at 11:05 AM Tbh I think Yax at least would probably respect the move I think he’d look at it from a game perspective. But who knows Either way, Crouch has the edge if they make f2 together If it ends up one from each pair nfi
JustJaking — Today at 11:07 AM I think Yaxley beats Lily, maybe also Crouch. Diggle probably loses to all the other three unless he picks up some narrative points from however the pairs break up
zesty — Today at 11:07 AM Omg I just was about to compare regulus to Natalie Anderson as the lone single and then also remembered his partner was ALSO the first boot
JustJaking — Today at 11:07 AM Aha
zesty — Today at 11:07 AM It’s happening y’all
JustJaking — Today at 11:07 AM I noticed when Moody lost and it seemed Regulus was the likely last single
zesty — Today at 11:07 AM That IS a great story tbh if he can sell it well enough
JustJaking — Today at 11:08 AM To this jury I don't think he can? But I'd love to see him try
zesty — Today at 11:08 AM His story is great but he just has like… no real moves to his name at all lol I think against Diggle he possibly could? Like he does have some support now with fleur and wood
JustJaking — Today at 11:09 AM Against Lily he'd get some of the votes she burned potentially Wood giving Regulus his wand is super telling
zesty — Today at 11:09 AM It depends on if he sells it well enough Like it is a cockroach story for the ages He needs to pull a Kristie at FTC As in irl Kristie
JustJaking — Today at 11:09 AM I think it still is even if he comes up short, even getting to F5 is an amazing achievement
zesty — Today at 11:10 AM Agreed He really just never gives up and it’s commendable I wonder if that switch charm will raise any alarm bells In Diggle and Yax Like, it is curious
JustJaking — Today at 11:17 AM Lucius is freaking out for all the wrong reasons lol Diggle thinks it was simply to lower the chances that Regulus would get a flick in And Crouch/Lily are suss on Dig not using the promised Switch charm because they also don't realise it was illegal lol
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Post by Peter Pettigrew on May 24, 2022 20:00:23 GMT 10
Lily can't be online for Magical Council so we may lose some of the potential Item theatrics... but the upside is a whole day's worth of vote deliberations between her and Crouch covering every scenario rather than a 45-minute window with just one decision before them.
Right now it seems like they're going to take out one of Yaxley/Diggle if they can, over Regulus. But Lily's changed her pre-vote three times already so who knows? Both worry that there'll be jury backlash if they don't stay loyal to the four until it's final four, Crouch wants Diggle out so that Yaxley can win out and take Crouch to the end over LIly, LIly wants Yaxley out to stop him from winning out - so there's no easy decision for them here.
The others are mostly quiet. Still messaging through the day but with nothing really of substance strategically. But Yaxley has put in a pre-vote with Diggle above Crouch/Lily (all below Regulus, of course), so it seems all the efforts to build him up as a threat are indeed having an impact.
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Post by Dolores Umbridge on May 24, 2022 20:14:18 GMT 10
Full credit to the pair alliance for dominating this endgame, but bigger props to Lily & Crouch for working themselves within that alliance into the best position. Securing the idol, and tonight it's looking like they're making the necessary move to cut one of the other two, avoiding the 2-2 deadlock against two players who are proven in challenges.
Yaxley and Diggle were amazing at the beginning of the merge, but since the alliance came together they've rested on their laurels and it's gonna bite one of them tonight. The other still has a great shot assuming this move lights a fire under their ass instead of deflating them.
Meanwhile, Regulus' story gets better and better each time her survives. I'm not sure if it's a winnable outcome for him unless he really sells it, but he's got a great shot for F2 at this point.
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Post by Bellatrix Lestrange on May 24, 2022 20:34:36 GMT 10
Challenge thoughts: Overall, it was done well, and way better than I expected it would be. I thought the various reading and checking might have been too time-consuming, but everyone did pretty well. Poor Regulus going over time is sad for him, but ultimately nobody could compare to Crouch here in being fast and 100% correct. I think Lily might have misremembered the plot of Pretty Woman, too, and that's funny.
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Post by Peter Pettigrew on May 25, 2022 1:11:51 GMT 10
Discord going into and through Final Five Magical Council:
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Post by Dolores Umbridge on May 25, 2022 1:21:05 GMT 10
This is such a dynamic F4. Very rare to have this much tension/fallout/drama/uncertainty in such a late game setting.
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Post by Peter Pettigrew on May 25, 2022 1:24:09 GMT 10
Well this was super fun and super tense and definitely fulfilled the prophesied thread subtitle too Crouch essentially held all the cards here, and once he knew that he and Lily were safe he became certain that Yaxley going would only hurt him - he knows that Yaxley would be willing to take him to the end if Yaxley won Final Immunity and has been hoping for a Yaxley/Lily/Crouch F3 for that reason. Lily had spent the day convincing him that Yaxley was more threatening than Diggle due to the Challenge factor, but clearly that's more the case for Lily than it is for Crouch. Regulus also was eager to boot Yaxley if they had the opportunity, and Lily seemed to agree... but as always tends to be the case between them that's one more broken promise about where Lily/Crouch were voting. Because when Crouch proposed playing his Item to save Yaxley and hit Diggle instead, essentially refusing to let Yaxley go, Lily - while in a meeting and while extremely frustrated about the switch - still kept a cool head and insisted that she join Crouch in voting for Diggle, in case Yaxley did not (Crouch had asked him whether he'd be willing to vote Diggle, and after hearing yes (albeit a reluctant 'if it's definitely me or him' yes) then doubled down on the Item play). Crouch didn't want to loop Regulus in, but Lily did tell him at the last moment to vote Diggle instead, which is what led to an outright majority upon Diggle, Item aside. Otherwise we'd have seen a 2-2 tie between Diggle and Regulus, getting even more blood on Lily/Crouch's hands. So now we're going into the finale and even though there's a clear PBvO pair taking up two of the four spots, everyone has good reason to be angry at everyone else. And the whole reason for this - Crouch not wanting to burn a friend who would take him to the finals... might no longer be a thing. It's gonna be a fun finish
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Post by Peter Pettigrew on May 25, 2022 8:41:00 GMT 10
...And I'm back with a few thematic thoughts going into the Finale This is a fitting end for the Diggle in two respects. First, the long arc of Yaxley's impact upon Diggle. It drew him into the more social core at Grimauld Place, protected him within various iterations of the pairs alliance, and allowed his bond wit Moody to go undetected/underestimated for so long. But it also drew undue attention and credit falsely attributed for the sole purpose of making him more of a target. The fear of him 'being in a pair' with the more friendly/connected/immune Yaxley made him paranoid in the mid-Merge and made loyalty to the pairs more appealing. But in the end it wasn't being in a pair that got him eliminated, but rather the regular clash of relationships and positioning; with only three players vulnerable and those who most valued Diggle on both those fronts long gone, he was the best of the three vulnerable options: Lily needed to keep Regulus in play because Game, and Crouch needed to keep Yaxley in because Friendship. And that's the other thing - Diggle's internal conflict between playing ruthlessly and emotionally. He finally found peace and settled into the latter even while Crouch/Lily were sharpening their knives in preparation for this moment, going all the way back to the Fleur/Moody boots. But the same thing that upended his faith in good people and friendship has also torn asunder those who rose against him; Crouch and Lily now grapple with the Game/Friendship conflict in ways they've never had to yet, while Yaxley has been turned to the other extreme now that he's seen them backstab Diggle. So that part of Diggle's story has now fed back into the arc of their pair as well Lily/Crouch as the final pair intact is also super fitting They've been the ones who best cooperated and made use of the PBvO twist, right from Lily's persistence on Day 0 in making Crouch see that they ought to be ride-or-dies no matter what. Others didn't see the games on those terms and so weren't able to see all that Lily/Crouch would pull off in pursuance of that vision, until it was too late. Their PM thread is consistently at the top of the Omnioculars list becuase of how active they are and how much they share, and this has been the case ever since their first night reunited at the Daily Prophet. None of the other pairs who got to PM clicked as quickly or as fully, and up until the last few minutes of the F5 round Crouch/Lily had been outplaying the entire cast, consistently, for a good part of the season. (You could also make an argument that Crouch/Yaxley has been the season's closest non-PBvO duo so having both these in play going into the finale, and poised to conflict no less, makes for brilliant story plotting.) Last thing: Lily outlasting the rest of the Order was predictable even if they'd been the only ten players in the Game, and all the more so once she abandoned her allies from there in favour of structures including Crouch. But also... Regulus is now the last one standing from The Department of Mysteries. Which, if you think back on all that unfolded there, and how thoroughly the others tripped into and over one another after the Merge is honestly hilarious
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Post by Dedalus Diggle on May 31, 2022 6:46:49 GMT 10
Diggle's internal conflict between playing ruthlessly and emotionally. He finally found peace and settled into the latter even while Crouch/Lily were sharpening their knives in preparation for this moment, going all the way back to the Fleur/Moody boots. But the same thing that upended his faith in good people and friendship has also torn asunder those who rose against him; Crouch and Lily now grapple with the Game/Friendship conflict in ways they've never had to yet, while Yaxley has been turned to the other extreme now that he's seen them backstab Diggle. So that part of Diggle's story has now fed back into the arc of their pair as well That's why I love ORGs. Only intense social games like these can write such good stories. I feel like me being blindsided was a necessary sacrifice to bring Yaxley back to reality. Find his inner fighting spirit and crush it during the last rounds. I'm biting my ass for not striking first, but as you all well know: I'm hesitent when it comes to being ruthless. But I love to be the driving motivation to push the protagonist over the edge
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