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Post by Peter Pettigrew on May 24, 2022 22:19:33 GMT 10
Guess what!? YOU just made it to the Finale episode of The ORG of the Phoenix! ![:fan](https://i.imgur.com/074wyXd.gif) Immunity Pairs are done. Hidden Immunity Items are done. Pureblood vs Order is... not quite done. But all that matters now is the relationships between the four of you who remain. We'll have three more Magical Councils, culminating in a Final Two facing the Wizengamot, and then the crowning of one Sole Sur Prime Minister for Magic. Who very well could be you ![;D](http://i.imgur.com/FVUId1j.png) 1. That was quite the tense round we just had. How did the strategising play out at Final Five, and why was Diggle the majority target? 2. Did you want to see Diggle leave there? What difference does his exit make to the dynamics for the last few rounds? Does Crouch playing an Item on Yaxley change anything? 3. How do you see the Final Four vote playing out tomorrow? Who would you like to see leave next? 4. How do you like your chances of reaching the Final Two? What are you doing to increase the likelihood that you make it there? 5. Should you reach the Final Magical Council, how likely do you think you are to win the Wizengamot vote? Which of the other players would you prefer to have beside you in the Final Two? Finally, in the event of a tied vote tomorrow we'll be playing a Tiebreaker Duel, which needs to be run live. Will you be able to make it online for this Magical Council?
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Post by Lily Potter on May 25, 2022 1:03:31 GMT 10
Wooooo we made the finale as the only PBvO pair surviving! In no US or AU Survivor season has a BvW pair survived until the F4. But once again, an on paper result leaves me feeling like it was a hollow victory.
We had always planned for one of us to win immunity via the pairs twist and knew we could save the other person with the merge HII we found a couple of rounds back. Realising our odds were reduced by being paired together for the F5 challenge, I cast FLICK (which we had earned by getting to 200 HP) to increase our odds and thought I had hit the jackpot when RNJesus blessed me with challenge beast Yaxley
I just tonight was going to be a particularly busy night because I had an important video call that was starting at 830pm and would go for an hour and a bit. So before the challenge results had gone out, I broke down all of our options with Barty, tried to explore the pro's and con's. I discussed my preferences but I made it very clear to him that I didn't want to force him into a decision that he wasn't comfortable with and I have always made it known that I'm happy to go with his choice if he has a strong opinion about it.
So when Barty won immunity and thus Yaxley was vulnerable for the first time since the F11 double boot round, we should take our shot at him. Diggle has been perceived as the biggest juror threat and he could have been an easy F4 vote, leaving Barty/me/RAB in the F3. I had even made it clear to him that he was welcome to cut me at f3 if he thought he had a better shot against them in the FTC, and not only would I not be bitter, I would work hard to corral votes for him on the Wizengamot
But having so much power, including a burning HII in his pocket that was expiring this round, led him to want to save Yax. Which I would have been perfectly fine with if he had just said "let's vote Diggs".
But instead his plan was to allow Diggs to vote RAB, have myself and RAB to vote Yaxley, and then he would play his HII on Yaxley cancelling our votes, and then he and Yax would vote for Diggs
This all happened in the MINUTES before Council and it was only at 21:14:26 that I got RAB and myself to swap our votes from Yax to Diggs. It was lucky that I had done that, because it turns out that Yax wasn't going to vote out Diggs and it would have been a 2*-2-1 on RAB boot
I'm still trying to work out his motivations for this move. My initial reaction was he was just trying to use the HII to make a big move in front of the Wizengamot that he could claim, channelling his "Yax, did you vote for who I told you to vote for?" energy.
With some more time to reflect, I realise that while I have only been loyal to Barty (and voted out my entire OG alliance because it was what was best for us), his loyalties have been divided between myself and Yaxley. He thought that if he could play the idol on Yax and "save" him, a Diggle-less Yax would have no one to turn to but Barty, and thus take him to F2. It was very much a "have your cake and eat it too" moment.
As anyone who watched my All Stars performance can attest to (or Conner in the penultimate round of Pokemon Rankdown), that NEVER works out - all that happens is EVERYONE feels manipulated by you. No one walked away from that vote feeling better about Barty, and if anything Yaxley and I feel particularly burnt even though we both survived.
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Post by Lily Potter on May 25, 2022 1:57:18 GMT 10
In terms of future plans, it's hard because although we hustled to get to F4 as the only pair, I can't trust that we'll vote as a bloc.
From his perspective, he'd rather vote out RAB and keep Yaxley - because he thinks that a F3 of me/him/yaxley results in him making it to F2 no matter the outcome of FIC. Which I get - except I don't think Yaxley would join us and vote out RAB in a 3-1 vote. Yaxley would pair with RAB to vote one of us out - probably me if they want the F3 to be Deatheaters to not have to worry about me getting Order votes (which I'm not sure I'd even get if they're bitter about the betrayals). So I'd be relying on FMC against RAB to survive
So depending on who wins F4 immunity, I may need to try and switch things up. If Barty wins immunity, I could try and engineer the mythical 2-1-1. This would mean telling Barty I'll vote RAB, but working with RAB to vote out Yaxley, and then hope Yaxley votes for me (assuming RAB is working with him). But 2-1-1 are mythical for a reason, because it relies on you knowing where ever single vote in the game is going, and if you have 1 wrong misread, it's game over. I can get why many others would prefer at least going for the 2-2 safety
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Post by Lily Potter on May 25, 2022 2:11:33 GMT 10
With regards to the Wizengamot vote, I don't think I'm particularly high on their pecking order at the moment. I assume that order is 1. Yaxley 2. Barty 3. Me 4. RAB. BUT I do think I could give a good speech at FTC regardless of who I sit next to, I just need to get to the end
I've always valued intentionality of moves to be an important factor in getting my own juror vote and I'm confident that I could explain my game well from that perspective.
I would just have to acknowledge that from the start, I came into this game knowing that I wasn't playing an individual game but that I was playing to the PBvO theme as best as I could. And I honestly think I can claim to have taken advantage of this twist the most. Even though my natural allies on Day 1 were Fleur/Tonks/Wood, I quickly realised that Malfoy/Yaxley were Barty's main allies and had set up a 3 pairs alliance with Wood and Diggles even before the swap, using the HII as an additional carrot to draw them in close. Diggles was probably my 5th choice (after Moody too) in Order ally but I made it work because it was important to Barty.
And that's what really what saved Oliver and I when we got swap-screwed into a minority. Because of the pairs alliance, Yax/Barty/Olly/I became the new majority and it was Pyrites, Lestrange and HK on the outs despite them all being OG Deatheaters together.
(Notwithstanding the chaotic Oliver/Lucius blow up) it was this pairs alliance that ran the merge and I got my way on every single merge vote (including 3 consecutive plurality votes including a 4-2-2 and a 3-2-1-1) up until the last one. I know the jury will question me tossing away my Order allies so callously, but I did the maths and I knew that the pairs alliance would get me to F5, whereas going with them would have resulted in Barty or myself being targeted. So I went with them, constantly putting in the effort to cement the alliance even when Diggs/Yax weren't confident in it. I can even bring up how I made sure my moves were more subtle so that Diggs and Barty copped the heat (and made people more comfortable sharing their plan with me), knowing that I would need to get brought to the end rather than immunity beast or idol my way to the end.
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Post by Lily Potter on May 25, 2022 2:12:32 GMT 10
With regards to availability - I have (online) D&D tomorrow but if I'm copping votes I guess I better make myself available for the FMC
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Post by Lily Potter on May 25, 2022 2:20:55 GMT 10
Also I've prob been too unfair to Barty and been blinded by Conner's immunity run to the end. Not everyone is that big of a challenge slut
But Yaxley basically did just confirm to me I would have always been on the bottom of his list for people he would have taken to the end, so I guess that means I'll have to try my hardest to win immunity tmrw and vote him out
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Post by Peter Pettigrew on May 25, 2022 11:03:34 GMT 10
Lily PotterI'm going to be asleep for the next little while (hopefully), so when you see this please tag Umbridge and coordinate a start time for the Challenge which works for both of you. Thanks!
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Post by Dolores Umbridge on May 25, 2022 11:43:29 GMT 10
I am sorry Lily, but the time has come for me to pu- to puni- to punish… No, to REWARD you. ![:<3](http://i.imgur.com/L3NpwEv.gif) ![](https://m.media-amazon.com/images/I/519p6EIZ-SL._SX425_.jpg) On behalf of the Ministry of Magic, congratulations on making it to Final 4. However this shakes out, you’ve been phenomenal. Good luck.
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Episode 15
May 25, 2022 13:45:24 GMT 10
via mobile
Post by Lily Potter on May 25, 2022 13:45:24 GMT 10
Sorry I’m just getting out of bed now Covid fatigue is real
I’m gonna eat something and shower and then hopefully I can smash out this challenge
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Post by Dolores Umbridge on May 25, 2022 14:02:10 GMT 10
No problem, just tag me whenever you're ready. I'm popping in every 15 mins or so.
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Post by Lily Potter on May 25, 2022 15:26:45 GMT 10
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Post by Dolores Umbridge on May 25, 2022 15:27:47 GMT 10
No problem. Let me just get set-up and we'll decide a time.
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Post by Lily Potter on May 25, 2022 15:29:48 GMT 10
N/w lmk when you're ready
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Post by Dolores Umbridge on May 25, 2022 15:31:52 GMT 10
If I post at 15:35 does that work for you? You'll have exactly one hour from that time
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Post by Dolores Umbridge on May 25, 2022 15:35:00 GMT 10
Lily Potter ! Go to www.freerice.comIf asked for your birthdate, ignore this (just click 'okay' to today's date). Click the log-in button at the top-right of your screen. Enter these details: Username: PhoenixFinal4 Password: winmywaytof3 Then begin playing the game! You'll be given a word and asked to identify its meaning from among four options. The words will ramp up in difficulty as you keep playing. Every question you answer correctly sponsors 10 grains of rice for the United Nations World Food Programme, to support its work saving and changing lives around the world. We'll also be making a corresponding donation to Fandom Forward. Simply keep playing for an hour and earn as much rice as you can. Whoever earns the most rice over this time will win Individual Immunity! We have set up your account as a 'student' to our 'teacher' and we will be able to monitor your progress. Do not attempt to fiddle with any of the account/site settings or you will be disqualified from the Challenge (though the money you raise will still make a very real difference). Good luck!
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Post by Dolores Umbridge on May 25, 2022 16:35:25 GMT 10
Lily Potter your time has elapsed! You finished with 3,390 grains of rice. Do feel free to keep playing if you want to raise more money, but we'll lock that in as your score for the Challenge. Thanks for participating. ![:<3](http://i.imgur.com/L3NpwEv.gif)
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Post by Lily Potter on May 25, 2022 16:35:46 GMT 10
Oh that was absolutely sadistic Peter
I'd rather write I will not tell lies for an hour....
Vocab is definitely a weakness of mine and a strength of Yaxley so I imagine he'll win that one quite comfortably
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Post by Lily Potter on May 25, 2022 16:54:17 GMT 10
So if my theory is correct and Yaxley does indeed win immunity tonight, then Barty and I will be forced to vote for RAB.
Now Yaxley has told me that he's not keen to vote for RAB because he thinks Barty/I will both take each other to the end and he's not confident of having to win the FIC (you and me both). Which means he will vote for Barty or I.
So one of us is going to be in a 2-2 FMC challenge against RAB tonight. I don't particularly fancy my challenge skills to defeat RAB, Barty definitely has been the better one at challenges this game.
In that case, I wonder if I should subtly highlight to Yax and RAB that Barty is a much bigger threat at the end, and it's better for them to target him than I. Not only would this make me safe, but Barty is more likely to beat RAB and stay around too.
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Post by Lily Potter on May 25, 2022 16:56:03 GMT 10
If RAB wins immunity I imagine it'll also be difficult
I would hope that finally then would Barty agree to vote out Yax. That would be 2 votes on Yax. In that situation I would have to convince RAB that Yax is too big of a WIzengamot threat (will point out how eloquent he is in his PM's) and we need to take him out 3-1, rather than give him a 2-2 shot (and another chance to look good in front of the WIzengamot)
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Post by Lily Potter on May 25, 2022 16:58:58 GMT 10
If I somehow win, I think I'm going to have to put my foot down and refuse to vote for RAB like he refused to vote for Yax last round.
I would tell him that if he doesn't vote Yax, he gets 2-1-1 out of the game if RAB joins Yax on him and at best can only hope for a 2-2 FMC challenge between Yax and RAB
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