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Post by Peter Pettigrew on May 25, 2022 1:40:04 GMT 10
Whoa this has gone quickly! But then there were four... We're in this thread until the end now, from tracking the F4 fallout to the last Challenges, a probable Tiebreaker Duel, what will inevitably be a brutal decision at Final Three and an overactive Wizengamot eager for their chance to cast judgement on the finalists. So in summary: me right now = ![:dance](https://i.imgur.com/T8uX0Lu.gif)
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Post by Peter Pettigrew on May 25, 2022 7:14:18 GMT 10
So this vote fallout is equal parts awful and amazing. Yaxley and Lily both feel burned by Crouch, who held all the power last night and could have made any of Diggle/Yaxley/Regulus go out, but instead tried to have it all and keep all his allies/friends at once - Lily expected a straightforward vote for Yaxley, Yaxley expected a straightforward vote for Regulus, and Crouch strongarmed everyone into a Diggle elimination only he wanted. Yaxley feels manipulated because of how Crouch framed the events (it's either Diggle or Yaxley so the latter needs to vote for the former so that Crouch can save the day). Lily feels betrayed because Crouch had all day to tell her he wouldn't be comfortable sending Yaxley out, and knew she was too busy for last-minute shenanigans; if he wanted it to be Diggle he simply had to ask her to vote for Diggle, rather than setting her up to look stupid for voting against a player her own partner protects with an Item. Never mind that if she hadn't agreed with Regulus at the literal last minute to vote for Diggle rather than Yaxley, behind Crouch's back, Crouch's plan would have sent Regulus home. The honesty in all the PMs since then has actually surprised me. Lily has made aired all grievances with Crouch and made him talk every wrong through. She's identified in Crouch some of the same errors she made in AS Chile - trying to keep too many options open and too many people on side, even though that results in them all feeling let down. And Yaxley has essentially told both of Crouch/Lily that he has no choice but to vote against them here. He's broken down exactly what Crouch tried to do and why it was so wrong, and he's had the most open conversation he's even had with Lily about their intentions and perceptions. To both, Crouch has admitted his greed in pursuing a F3 with his two closest allies even if it ruined both their games, and the contrast from the rush of power he felt earlier is reminiscent of Ian in Palau: he got caught playing selfishly, got thwarted, then browbeaten into regretting it. Yesterday he was the most likely to win a Final Magical Council, but now who knows? Yaxley's truth-telling is kind of disarming here, as both seem to think his openness means he can be talked around and would vote with them for Regulus - certainly Crouch still has no intention of keeping Regulus over Yaxley if neither win Immunity, in the hope of Yaxley winning Final Immunity and keeping Crouch. Meanwhile, Yaxley's confessional is a refreshing mix of 'I'm doomed regardless' and 'Burn them all' because he's got so little to lose now that he might as well play fast and loose. If he does pull through here this will be a key turning point, where he refocuses on the Game and disbands all notions of loyalty, nice people and even shared joy within Survivor. That framing probably makes it seem darker than it is? But he and Diggle have been cruising on clouds for the past few rounds so I'm pumped that he's pumped to force his way into a win now, rather than just a comfortable ending for the group. And then there's Regulus, so self-deprecating about his game awareness and winning chances that it almost seems put on. And whether intended or not there's a building sense of 'I don't know about thaaaaat' as the strife among the other three unfolds. As Chouch has been told rather bluntly, all the ways that he overextended are going to get back the Wizengamot eventually, even if right now his Item play seems kind of like Wendell protecting Laurel just to show that he could. And his headspace (in terms of confidence in his own game) is lower than usual, and even lower than Lily's - which is saying something. This last round has turned what could have been three FMC cases for near-perfect games into things the nobody is feeling great about any longer, and if that sticks then Regulus' chances go way way up. Of course, being Regulus, he's only talking about music and life with Yaxley rather than confirming that they'll be voting the same way here ![:lol](https://i.imgur.com/X4ixXao.gif) But hopefully that'll turn around today? Either way it's going to be messy.
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Post by Peter Pettigrew on May 25, 2022 19:52:08 GMT 10
So happy for Regulus to be winning Immunity ![:fan](https://i.imgur.com/074wyXd.gif) I think he came into this expecting to lose everything he possibly could, despite my reassurances that the Challenges here would be more equitable than usual even for those who aren't great at the conventional ORG ones. Makes things interesting for the vote, too. Lily has been working all round to paint Yaxley as the target, telling everyone that he's telling everyone else he plans to take them to the Final Two - when in fact he's been completely honest with everyone. Yaxley went to sleep before coordinating a plan with Regulus, too, for who they'd vote for were one of them Immune and they could choose between Lily and Crouch. Crouch is willing to let Lily lead the decision this time, she doesn't trust Crouch to vote Yaxley and is considering a 2-1-1 where she and Regulus win the day, but if Regulus catches on and Yaxley comes back online in time to confirm this really ought to be a tie. Crazy that there are still so many possibilities this close to the end! ![:D](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/grin.png)
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Post by Dolores Umbridge on May 25, 2022 21:57:36 GMT 10
FINAL 4 TIEBREAKER LET'S GO!!!!!!
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Post by Dolores Umbridge on May 26, 2022 21:41:31 GMT 10
So Yax is immune, and in the f2! Regulus has been his planned pick for a while now, but Lily's arguments do have merit- and the challenge supports her case. I do understand why Yaxley intends to take Regulus based on the information he has, but the wand distribution may cause him to rethink things. Regulus really does have an excellent story to sell at FTC- from Yaxley's perspective, he wasn't in the thick of things and doesn't have many strategic moves to his name. But that is not always the deciding factor. Of course I have the benefit of knowing that Lily is being (unfairly) maligned by the jury while Regulus is getting momentum. Either way I would consider Yax the favourite going into the F2, and I'm so happy for him. ![:<3](http://i.imgur.com/L3NpwEv.gif) Excellent game. The dark horse! However, despite how naturally adept at these things he clearly is, this is still only his 3rd game. FTC is an entirely different beast, there are subtleties and meta aspects to it that could be lost on somebody who doesn't watch the show. It's can a lot about surprise and spectacle, which Regulus would have with a Kristie Bennett style performance. So that'd be a tossup. So Yax is the favourite but he definitely has a fight ahead of him to bring it home. That said, I know that Vamaar has read a lot of games and so he could very well be ready to nail it.
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Post by Peter Pettigrew on May 31, 2022 0:06:47 GMT 10
Placeholder for finale commentary I promise I'll get to eventually! Edit: but actually just this I guess. ![](https://i.gyazo.com/97b3d467407a6f23f5631af9768fb102.png)
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